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The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-September 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Incomes of the population of Armenia after the change of government

After the political changes in 2018, the new Government of the Republic of Armenia announced about the need of creating a free, dignified, happy citizen, the key factors of which are improving the living standards of the population, more equal and fair distribution of incomes, poverty alleviation, eradication of extreme poverty and strengthening of social security. What has been done by the government to fulfill its promises and what results have been achieved? How the income of the population has changed in 2017-2021? Has the standard of living of the society improved?

This study examines these and a number of similar issues by comparative analysis of indicators for 2017-2020 as well as by analyzing the feasibility of implementing the relevant provisions the program of the newly formed government for 2021-2026. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


44-Day War and the Gradual Decline of “America First” Diplomacy

Washington has been involved in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict within the format of the OSCE Minsk Group since the beginning. Even in 2001, the US-mediated negotiations seemed to offer a solution to the conflict. However, Washington's involvement gradually waned as a result of important but not vital US interests in the region, Trump's promotion of "America First" diplomacy, and the strong influence of the Russian factor in the region. In the early stages of the Artsakh war, unleashed by Azerbaijan in September 2020, the Trump administration took a significantly more passive stance than the leaders of the other two Minsk Group co-chairing countries. However, high-level involvement gradually increased, not limited to the institutional level. The war also coincided with the US pre-election campaign, which somehow affected the stance of Trump’s administration. Unlike the previous administration, the Biden administration attempts to increase the US influence in the region. Against the background of recent statements made by official Washington, it can be concluded that this has a direct reflection in the conflict settlement process. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-August 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


China's ambitions in the race of superpowers for the Greater Middle East

China, which has been growing at an unprecedented rate in recent decades, strengthening its position in various parts of the world, intends to change the existing world order and to become a key player in the new world order. In terms of world order and the geopolitical race of superpowers, the Greater Middle East is by far the most important region in the world, where superpowers are always competing for hegemony. To get a clear idea of the race for influence in the region, in this analysis we tried to understand what influence and interests China and its main competitors, first of all the United States and Russia, have in the region.

This article is part of a comprehensive analysis published by the “Luys” Foundation entitled "China's policy in the Middle East and South Caucasus on the example of relations with Turkey and Iran" which you can read at the following link:

https://www.luys.am/index.php?m=publicationsOne&pid=246&lang=eng

  


China's policy in the Middle East and South Caucasus on the example of relations with Turkey and Iran

In the Middle East and the South Caucasus, China is gradually becoming one of the important geopolitical factors with which all countries in the region seek to build new quality relations. In order to correctly represent the race for superiority in the region, in this analysis we tried to understand what kind of influence and what interests have China and its main competitors in the region, primarily the United States and Russia. Turkey and Iran play a key role in the South Caucasus, therefore, within the framework of this analysis, we separately examined China's relations with each of these countries.

Finally, we tried to understand the impact of China's regional policy on the South Caucasus countries, and also presented the vision and prospects for the development of the Armenian-Chinese relations. One of the important conclusions of this analysis is that deepening multilayer relations with the Iran-China axis can become a geopolitical alternative for Armenia, which, in the event of the collapse of the existing regional security system, will insure the country against existential threats, at the same time, under current conditions, will not create serious obstacles in the Armenian-Russian relations. Full material is available only in Armenian․

  


US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Domestic and foreign policy consequences and Russia's new opportunity

In the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks against the United States, the fight against terrorism became a priority for the USА, leading to the engagement in the longest war in American history in Afghanistan. After G. Bush era, several U.S. administrations began to realize that there are other foreign policy priorities for the United States and there is a need to end "forever war” in Afghanistan. This led to the gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. The complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan took place under the 46th U.S. President Joe Biden. Although the U.S. troops have now been completely withdrawn from Afghanistan, the withdrawal has been a very hectic, rapid and disorganized process, for which Biden and his administration have been widely criticized. This paper will discuss the process of withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, its domestic political consequences for the Biden administration, as well as Russia's response and possible further steps in the current situation. Full material is available only in Armenian․

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-July 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


On the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first half of 2021

The objective of the present analysis is to assess the execution of the state budget of the RA in the given period. First, we describe the general state of the economy of the RA, namely the driving forces of economic activity, the developments in individual sectors of the economy, the behavior of the components of the demand – consumption and investment – and so on. Afterwards, we analyze the performance of government revenues and expenditures by comparing the actual and planned values of the respective indicators. We conclude the analysis by summarizing the main observations and results. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


The G7 plan to counter China's growing influence․ BRI vs B3W

During the 2021, G7 summit in the UK, Build Back Better World (“B3W”) global infrastructure initiative was launched, which has the ambition of becoming a serious challenger to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (“BRI”). The B3W project aims to fill the 40+ trillion infrastructure gap in the developing world by 2035. This article identifies the potential of the B3W project, its challenges and obstacles, the prospects of possible competition with the Chinese BRI initiative, as well as Armenia's role in the implementation of the B3W project. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


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