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Luys Foundation Annual Report - 2021

During the reporting period, the Luys Foundation team carried out large-scale analytical-research work, covering a wide variety of topics.Our focus is on the current developments in law, economy, politics, international relations. During the year, our team published about 70 researches, in which not only the existing problems and challenges were analyzed, but also appropriate solutions were sought and suggested. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-May 2022

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


On the annual report for the year 2021 of the Audit Chamber of the RA

This reference summarizes the annual report for the year 2021 of the Audit Chamber of the Republic of Armenia on audits selected via risk-based methodology. In particular, the reference presents the general description of the above-mentioned audits (areas of auditing, types, nature of registered violations, etc.), as well as the most significant facts of the audits included in the annual report. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


On the execution report of the state budget of the RA of 2021

The objective of the present analysis is to assess the execution of the state budget of the RA in the given period. First, we describe the general state of the economy of the RA, namely the driving forces of economic activity, the developments in individual sectors of the economy, the behavior of the components of the demand – consumption and investment – and so on. Afterwards, we analyze the performance of government revenues and expenditures by comparing the actual and planned values of the respective indicators. We conclude the analysis by summarizing the main observations and results. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-April 2022

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Issues in the crediting sector of Armenia as a result of the change of power in 2018 and their macroeconomic implications in the context of the 2020 turmoil

As a result of the short-sighted and populist policy of the Armenian government the process of accumulation of problematic risks has been registered in the loan portfolio of the financial system of Armenia, since 2018. Subsequently, the credit sector faced certain challenges that had a significant negative impact on the macroeconomic environment of Armenia due to the 2020 crisis. The above-mentioned developments were analyzed in the work. The study shows that government actions led to a sharp deepening of the debt burden (in the form of consumer and mortgage loans) of the household sector in 2018-2019. In the crisis environment of 2020, this contributed to a much deeper decline in the level of welfare of the population, reflected in both a sharp decline in demand (consumption) and an increase in the volume of low-quality loans. In the post-crisis period, the problem of household debt burden remains unresolved, which raises additional concerns amid the negative shocks to the Armenian economy following the escalating Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022. As a result of government short-sightedness and a post-2018 boom in mortgage lending, the fiscal space to weather 2020 shocks has been smaller than expected. At the same time, the problem of mortgage loans has not yet been fully resolved, which is why the state suffers more and more revenue losses from year to year. The latter, in the environment of the already existing economic shocks, contributes to the accumulation of risks endangering fiscal stability. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


Armenian "6 principles" - a basis for negotiations or a diplomatic adventure?

In an interview with the Armenian Public Television on May 13 Ambassador for Special Assignments Edmon Marukyan unveiled 6 points presented by Armenia in response to 5 points previously submitted by Azerbaijan, on the basis of which it is proposed to start negotiations on a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The “Luys” Foundation, referring to the points published by both Azerbaijan and Armenia, tried to analyze their content.

We noted that the “proposals/principles” presented by Azerbaijan and Armenia are extremely incomparable both in terms of their content, international perception and the reaction of mediators. At the same time, we presented some proposals that, if properly formulated and presented, could/can give the Armenian side the opportunity to approach the start of the negotiation process from a position that is more reasonable, internationally acceptable and invulnerable from the point of view of international law. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


Armenian lobby under the Biden administration

This article discusses the impact of the lobbying organizations on U.S. policy, particularly through ethnic and professional lobbies. Special attention is paid to the priorities of Armenian ethnic lobbying organizations in the United States, more specifically the activities of the Armenian National Committee of America and the Armenian Assembly of America, as well as their priorities under the Biden administration. For this purpose, the specific steps taken by the Armenian lobbying organizations and their achievements within the framework of the above-mentioned priorities were analyzed. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


Business support incentives applied in Armenia after the change of power

In 2018, the new authorities of the Republic of Armenian announced about the start of an "economic revolution", one of the key components of which was the assessment of the efficiency and transparency of tax and customs incentives provided to businesses, the elimination of inefficient incentives and the definition of new more targeted and effective support mechanisms. What we have today? What steps have been taken by the government to achieve the mentioned goals? This analysis presents the main tax and customs incentives applied to support businesses in Armenia, the main changes done in recent years and the steps undertaken by the Government to increase efficiency and accountability of the applied incentives. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


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