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Geopolitics and genocide

The use of the term "Genocide" in the US President Biden's Statement is a milestone in the process of recognizing the Armenian Genocide, despite the fact that some see it as a punitive step against Turkey pursuing its own policy in various areas without the consent of Washington. For Armenia and Armenians all over the world, there is also a third aspect of the problem, no less important than the two mentioned. In his Statement, Biden noted his determination to prevent such new disasters. The former US President did not show such determination during the large-scale Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression in 2020. Six months after the ceasefire was established, the threat of genocide against the Armenians of Artsakh has not disappeared, as evidenced by the rhetoric and actions of Turkey and Azerbaijan. The events in East Timor, South Sudan and Kosovo show that such a threat is significantly reduced only by the exercise of the right of people of conflict area to self-determination and the international recognition of a state based on it. The research shows that there are real preconditions for the recognition of the independence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. All that is needed is the determination and adherence of the international community to the well-known principles and values. The position of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs on this issue will show whether the statements of three of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, never to allow genocide or other crimes against humanity, have a real basis or they are just appropriate formulations at the moment, which will once again be sacrificed to the immoral selfish interests emerged during fierce geopolitical competition. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The authoritarian path of Erdogan’s Turkey and Armenia

Turkey's internal political processes and changes in the country’s state ideology greatly influence Ankara's regional policy. Erdogan's authoritarian Turkey, spiced with nationalist and Islamic ideas, has once again become one of the main threats to regional security. Therefore, when assessing the challenges emanating from Turkey, it is necessary not only to study its foreign and security policy, but also to correctly assess the internal political processes taking place there.

Within the framework of this analysis, we tried to study the processes of the establishment and strengthening of authoritarian rule in Turkey by Erdogan, their ideological foundations and their influence on Ankara's foreign and regional policy. At the same time, we have recorded that some episodes of the working style of the current Turkish and Armenian authorities on the way to establish authoritarianism in the country have strange similarities. However, if the strengthening of Erdogan's authoritarian rule in Turkey is aimed at implementing the nationalist, expansionist programs of this country, then the establishment of an authoritarian system in Armenia without any pro-state ideology has already led the country to a disaster and may threaten the existence of statehood. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-February 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Reference on the execution of the budget of the city of Yerevan (2020)

The budget execution report of Yerevan represents the main results – achievements and failures - of activities of the city council in the given period. It shows by how much the actual revenue collection deviates from the planned level. Additionally, the report demonstrates whether the expenditures were made in accordance with the prespecified plan. The budget execution report of Yerevan also characterizes the structure of actual revenues and expenditures. The goal of the present analysis is to study the foregoing report and to make necessary conclusions. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Draft amendments to the electoral code: Analysis of the major amendments

On 4 March 2020, the ruling “My Step” faction of the National Assembly came up with legislative initiative on amendments to the electoral legislation of the Republic of Armenia. The President of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia requested the Venice Commission to provide a legal opinion on the draft amendments.
The analysis by the “Luys” Foundation addresses most problematic aspects of the legislative package, in particular, the proportional electoral system and stable majority clause. The analysis also refers to the other amendments envisaged by draft amendments to the electoral code.

  


The Index of Economic Freedom in the RA (2021)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Social Mobility Index (2020)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


EU Budget Support Programs in Armenia (2016-2020)

The European Union provides financial support to Armenia mainly within the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy. The support is provided through the annual action plans signed with the partner country every year. These documents define the areas of EU support, the scope and mechanisms for the provision of assistance as well as financial instruments, one of which is the budget support.

The EU budget support is one of the main form of EU assistance to Armenia. It includes transfers of funds to the partner country’s state treasury and is used to support the partner country’s reform efforts in mutually agreed sectors, as well as to improve capacity for policy development.

This study presents the EU budget support programs provided to Armenia, the principles of their implementation and progress of their implementation in 2016-2020. Full material is available only in Armenian

  


2020 war. preconditions, consequences and disaster recovery opportunities

In 2020, the Azeri-Turkish military aggression and the capitulation of the Armenian authorities had disastrous effects for the Republic of Armenia and for the Republic of Artsakh: thousands of victims and captives, tens of thousands wounded, huge material and moral losses, loss of all territories “adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh”, loss of parts of Askeran, Hadrut, Martuni, Martakert regions of Nagorno-Karabakh, the cities of Shushi and Hadrut, the defeat of the Armenian army, the reshaping of a number of border areas of the Republic of Armenia in favor of Azerbaijan, the sharp deterioration of relations with the allies, and the reputation of an unreliable and irresponsible partner. Given such huge losses, it is obviously difficult to single out the internal and external factors. Meanwhile, the key events of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict make the study of external relations a priority, in particular after the change of power in 2018, as prior to the war it was already clear that there are many challenges and fundamental mistakes endangering the conflict settlement process. But the failures were not limited to the settlement process, and even to the war. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the totally failed authorities of Armenia, ignoring one of the postulates of human history, i.e. the defeated government must leave, cling to the government in every possible way, not creating any opportunity to form a new government and to solve extremely difficult problems. The catastrophic losses caused by the war, being increased after the establishment of the ceasefire, uncertainties and ominous assumptions about further developments require an assessment of the changes in Armenia's foreign policy since the 2018 change of power and their impact on the results of the war and on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the conditions of deepening geopolitical rivalry. As the Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression has sharply increased the threats to the security of the Republic of Armenia and of the Republic of Artsakh, the Armenians face unprecedented challenges of the last century. To avoid disaster and to overcome the extremely difficult challenges, it is necessary to reconsider the achievements, successes, failures and mistakes of three decades of independence, to identify their grounds and causes.

This study enables to identify the causes of failures in the field of foreign policy, that led to the disaster, to assess the current situation in this field, and to outline the problems, the solution of which will allow overcoming the disastrous situation, ensuring the revival of the Republic of Armenia and saving Artsakh.

 

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


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