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The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-April 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


On the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first quarter of 2021

The objective of the present analysis is to assess the execution of the state budget of the RA in the given period. First, we describe the general state of the economy of the RA, namely the driving forces of economic activity, the developments in individual sectors of the economy, the behavior of the components of the demand – consumption and investment – and so on. Afterwards, we analyze the performance of government revenues and expenditures by comparing the actual and planned values of the respective indicators. We conclude the analysis by summarizing the main observations and results. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Centralized register of bank accounts. New challenges for banking secrecy

A draft law is being discussed in the National Assembly, according to which the Central Bank should create and maintain a centralized register of bank accounts, in which all commercial banks operating in the territory of the Republic of Armenia must necessarily participate.

The information included in the centralized register of bank accounts relates to the right of banking secrecy, derived from the fundamental right to private life guaranteed by article 31 of the Constitution. In this context, the draft law is problematic from the point of view of compliance with the requirements of the Constitution in the case of restrictions on basic human rights.

The draft law does not regulate the procedure of maintenance of the centralized register of bank accounts, the procedure and grounds for providing information from it and the range of bodies to which this information may be available. Taking into account that the draft law concerns the right of banking secrecy, all these issues should be addressed on the level of law.

The study of international experience shows that, in contrast to the draft law, international documents offer regulations that allow to ensure balance of interests and guarantee confidence in the banking system, and do not disproportionately restrict the right to privacy. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-March 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Geopolitics and genocide

The use of the term "Genocide" in the US President Biden's Statement is a milestone in the process of recognizing the Armenian Genocide, despite the fact that some see it as a punitive step against Turkey pursuing its own policy in various areas without the consent of Washington. For Armenia and Armenians all over the world, there is also a third aspect of the problem, no less important than the two mentioned. In his Statement, Biden noted his determination to prevent such new disasters. The former US President did not show such determination during the large-scale Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression in 2020. Six months after the ceasefire was established, the threat of genocide against the Armenians of Artsakh has not disappeared, as evidenced by the rhetoric and actions of Turkey and Azerbaijan. The events in East Timor, South Sudan and Kosovo show that such a threat is significantly reduced only by the exercise of the right of people of conflict area to self-determination and the international recognition of a state based on it. The research shows that there are real preconditions for the recognition of the independence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. All that is needed is the determination and adherence of the international community to the well-known principles and values. The position of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs on this issue will show whether the statements of three of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, never to allow genocide or other crimes against humanity, have a real basis or they are just appropriate formulations at the moment, which will once again be sacrificed to the immoral selfish interests emerged during fierce geopolitical competition. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The authoritarian path of Erdogan’s Turkey and Armenia

Turkey's internal political processes and changes in the country’s state ideology greatly influence Ankara's regional policy. Erdogan's authoritarian Turkey, spiced with nationalist and Islamic ideas, has once again become one of the main threats to regional security. Therefore, when assessing the challenges emanating from Turkey, it is necessary not only to study its foreign and security policy, but also to correctly assess the internal political processes taking place there.

Within the framework of this analysis, we tried to study the processes of the establishment and strengthening of authoritarian rule in Turkey by Erdogan, their ideological foundations and their influence on Ankara's foreign and regional policy. At the same time, we have recorded that some episodes of the working style of the current Turkish and Armenian authorities on the way to establish authoritarianism in the country have strange similarities. However, if the strengthening of Erdogan's authoritarian rule in Turkey is aimed at implementing the nationalist, expansionist programs of this country, then the establishment of an authoritarian system in Armenia without any pro-state ideology has already led the country to a disaster and may threaten the existence of statehood. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-February 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Reference on the execution of the budget of the city of Yerevan (2020)

The budget execution report of Yerevan represents the main results – achievements and failures - of activities of the city council in the given period. It shows by how much the actual revenue collection deviates from the planned level. Additionally, the report demonstrates whether the expenditures were made in accordance with the prespecified plan. The budget execution report of Yerevan also characterizes the structure of actual revenues and expenditures. The goal of the present analysis is to study the foregoing report and to make necessary conclusions. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Draft amendments to the electoral code: Analysis of the major amendments

On 4 March 2020, the ruling “My Step” faction of the National Assembly came up with legislative initiative on amendments to the electoral legislation of the Republic of Armenia. The President of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia requested the Venice Commission to provide a legal opinion on the draft amendments.
The analysis by the “Luys” Foundation addresses most problematic aspects of the legislative package, in particular, the proportional electoral system and stable majority clause. The analysis also refers to the other amendments envisaged by draft amendments to the electoral code.

  


The Index of Economic Freedom in the RA (2021)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


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