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Reference on the budget of Yerevan of 2021

The budget of Yerevan sets the priorities of the economy of the city for the upcoming year. In the budget the planned level of revenues, as well as its structure is presented. In addition, the planned level of expenditures and its distribution by functional and economic classifications are determined. The forecasting of revenues and expenditures is followed by the planning of the budget deficit and the sources of financing it. Given the importance of this document and the programs embedded there, the present analysis aims to assess whether the budget of Yerevan and its structure are consistent with the problems confronting the city. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-November 2020

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Human Development Indices and Indicators in the RA (2020)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The effects of shocks in 2020 on the Government debt of RA

2020 began with a coronavirus crisis, and ends with the Artsakh war, and political instability. As a result, a very difficult economic situation has been created, which will inevitably have a negative impact on the stability of public finances, leading to a sharp increase in public debt.

At the same time, given the existence of the several crises (security, economic, political, social), the emergence of government debt crisis will have catastrophic consequences for the Armenian economy.

This analysis aims to study the effects of 2020 shocks on the Government debt of the Republic of Armenia. In this paper the dynamics of government debt in recent years and the reasons for sharp increase in government debt in 2020 were studied, as well as the expected trends in government debt in the coming years were discussed.

  


What to expect from the administration of the 46th US President Joe Biden

The analysis discusses the foreign policy vision of President-elect Joe Biden's administration. The study of Biden's position on issues such as US relations with Iran, Russia, Turkey, as well as the policy towards the South Caucasus, it becomes clear that Biden's foreign policy will be more active and aggressive. The issue of human rights protection in other countries can be used as a means of building relations with other countries and putting pressure on them. One of the main goals of the foreign policy will be to restore the US role as a world leader. As for the bilateral relations, Russia will continue to be seen as the main opponent, and Iran as one of the main rivals. The US policy towards Turkey will not change dramatically, but tougher rhetoric, up to the imposition of light sanctions will be possible. The main political priorities for the South Caucasus will be maintained. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


How did Ambassador Świtalski misread the foundations of Armenia's foreign policy?

This analysis was ready for publication before the outbreak of hostilities on September 27 this year, however, due to the war and the restrictions imposed by it, it was not published.

Over the past decade, a number of key events have taken place in the Republic of Armenia, which have had a great impact on the country's foreign relations and their dynamics. The Head of the European Union Delegation to Armenia during the most active phase of this very interesting period (2015-2019), Ambassador Piotr Świtalski, recently summarized his memoirs in a booklet, called “The Armenian revolution: an unfinished cable. In his memoirs, Ambassador Świtalski reflects on various episodes of his activity in Armenia, focusing on the dynamics of Armenia-EU relations, the current state of the Karabakh settlement, and especially the developments that took place in Armenia immediately before and after the April 2018 revolution. In this review, we have addressed in detail the foreign policy issues reflected in this very interesting booklet, helping the reader to more comprehensively evaluate the assessments of the European Union's Chief Representative in Armenia. As part of the review, we also tried to figure out - can the mission of Ambassador Świtalskiy in Yerevan be considered as successful? Judging by the memoirs and reflections presented in his booklet, we came to the conclusion that the author failed to solve the problem of finding a “golden mean” between human, political and professional assessments.

  


There is a diplomatic solution. Opportunities and prospects for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict after the 2020 war

The article discusses the realities that preceded the Azerbaijani-Turkish military aggression of September 27 and triggered the war. It analyzes the effects of the war, the legal force and political significance of the tripartite statement on the cessation of war, as well as the opportunities and prospects for the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It is revealed that the Azeri-Turkish aggression was made possible by using the settlement process for internal political purposes, by contrasting the settlement process with meaningless and extremely dangerous “ideas” to the principles developed over decades within the OSCE Minsk Group, by not heeding the voiced warnings, and by completely failing international relations. It is shown that though the tripartite statement on the cessation of hostilities was important in terms of establishing a ceasefire and deploying peacekeepers, it is illegal in terms of resolving territorial issues; it contradicts the basic principles of international law, the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia and it constitutes an act of capitulation for Armenia. However, after the handover of Karvachar and Lachin regions, it seems senseless to dispute it. Instead, efforts should be focused on making full use of the opportunities for the settlement of the conflict, based on the December 3 joint statement of the Minsk Group Co-Chairs on the need to resolve other issues of the conflict, based on the well-known principles and elements. The situation can still be saved through the independence and international recognition of the right of the people of Artsakh to self-determination. The complexity of the problem under the extremely difficult conditions created by the war, the systemic crisis of governance in relation to many problems both in foreign and domestic life, the urgent need for organizing a high-quality work necessary for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and for the possible solutions to a number of problems and challenges facing the Republic of Armenia, requires the formation and activities of a new government, a unique national consolidation as well as concentration of forces and capabilities for overcoming the national disaster.

  


Reference on the state budget of the RA of 2021

The present analysis is devoted to the investigation of the key aspects of the state budget of the RA. First, we consider the projections of macroeconomic variables forming the basis of the budget, then we analyse the planned values of parameters of the general and central budget of the RA. We pay particular attention to the comparison of the planned values of revenues and expenditures with the actual levels observed in previous years. In the end we make conclusions in order to assess whether the budget addresses the problems that exist in the RA. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The UN General Assembly's 75th session, the main emphasis in the speeches of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan

This analysis was ready for publication before the outbreak of hostilities on September 27 this year, however, due to the war and the restrictions imposed by it, it was not published.

The symbolic 75th session of the UN General Assembly has attracted the attention of the whole world, especially in view of the global crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic and the vacuum of international leadership in the fight against the epidemic. Most countries use the UN General Assembly podium to present their basic approaches to a variety of foreign policy issues: the speeches made there are not just texts based on the expediency of the situation, but pass through a serious preparatory stage, proceed from the strategic ideas of the given countries. In this regard, it is important to understand how the authorities of Armenia and Azerbaijan used the main tribune of the United Nations in order to convey their main message to the world and their own society. Within the framework of this article, we tried to identify the main accents of the speeches of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, considering them in comparison.

  


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