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Coronavirus, geopolitical rearrangements and Armenia

This analysis was ready for publication before the outbreak of hostilities on September 27 this year, however, due to the war and the restrictions imposed by it, it was not published.

Small states often underestimate the potential of global realities from the point of view of their state security, while the latter are more vulnerable to undesirable geopolitical developments, as disproportionate responses to them can expose such countries to existential danger. One of the most important achievements of Armenia since the restoration of independence has been that at various stages of the country's development, the authorities have been able to pay adequate attention to geopolitical processes and save the country from various threats and shocks associated with these processes. The crisis that has arisen in the world as a result of COVID-19, as in the case of all global crises, is accelerating the processes of geopolitical changes that have already begun. In the framework of this analysis, we have tried to assess the geopolitical consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, the peculiarities of the changing world order, as well as to understand the possible impact of these changes on Armenia and the region.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-October 2020

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


A study on the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first nine months of 2020

The objective of the present analysis is to assess the execution of the state budget of the RA in the given period. First, we describe the general state of the economy of the RA, namely the driving forces of economic activity, the developments in individual sectors of the economy, the behavior of the components of the demand – consumption and investment – and so on. Afterwards, we analyze the performance of government revenues and expenditures by comparing the actual and planned values of the respective indicators. We conclude the analysis by summarizing the main observations and results. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-September 2020

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-August 2020

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


After the ceasefire. The only real solution is the international recognition of Artsakh

It may seem that before the war is over, it is too early to talk about what to do after the ceasefire. But the imperative to address the issue of what to do today comes literally from stressing the importance of tomorrow.

The struggle waged for more than three decades has reached its peak today. The large-scale Azeri-Turkish aggression that began on September 27 requires absolute consolidation, not only to defeat the enemy on the battlefield, but also for the international recognition of Artsakh, because the current situation is unprecedented and most favorable for that.

Of course, international recognition is a very difficult issue, but there is simply no other expectation from the international community as a factor to exclude the recurrence of such aggressions in the future. Therefore, all efforts, means and opportunities should be focused on the international recognition of Artsakh, the most effective beginning of which may be the recognition by the Minsk Group co-chairing countries.

For that, it is first necessary to define the interconnected internal-external goals and the urgent steps and means to achieve them.

  


Conceptual bases of secession success analysis

The article discusses the methods of comparative analysis of ethno-political conflicts, secession and the problems of ensuring the effectiveness of the analysis of these processes. The various principles and models used for comparative analysis are considered, as well as specific examples of ethno-political conflicts that arose or resumed after the collapse of the communist unions, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. The discussion of the results of the application of both qualitative and quantitative models of secession analysis shows that the complexity of ethno-political conflicts and the processes of their settlement, as well as their multifactorial nature, require the application of a complex interdisciplinary research approach. Moreover, in these models, the authors avoid considering the legal component of the problem for two reasons: first, political scientists often have difficulty in observing non-political aspects of the problem in the legal scientific field, and second, due to political expediency, the problem is often mythologized: it is declared that there is an international choice between the right of peoples self-determination and the principle of territorial integrity. This seriously diminishes the credibility of the results of research on one of the most complex issues in international relations. The processes of resolving ethno-political conflicts have become more complicated due to the escalation of geopolitical confrontation in the post-Soviet space in the last 10-15 years, as influential states use them more and more often as very sensitive phenomena to promote or hinder the development of this or that regional process. In order to increase the efficiency of comparative analysis, conceptual formalization of problem solving is required. The article proposes a concept of comparative analysis of the success of ethno-political conflicts and secession through a comprehensive analysis based on the interdisciplinary approach, taking into account all the key components of the problem - legal, (geo) political, ethno-cultural. The analysis consists of two stages: selection of comparable conflicts or secession and selection of comparison variables. In order to ensure the reliability of the analysis results, it is recommended to use not arbitrary, but highly justified variables, the composition of which is necessary և sufficient to achieve the given goal.

  


Analysis of the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia for the development of the industrial sector in Armenia

The current government and the political majority of the Republic of Armenia in their programming documents stipulate that the activities of the government are aimed at building a high-technology, industrial, as well as an export-oriented, competitive and inclusive economy that meets high environmental standards.

Are these promises being kept or not? The purpose of this study is to analyze the promises given by the political majority and the Government of the Republic of Armenia for the development of industry and the activities taken for their implementation. The document provides also detailed statistical analysis of 2017-2020 years, providing comparative analysis of relevant indicators. The full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Energy Transition Index in the RA (2020)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


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