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The illusion of self-confidence. The Dunning-Kruger effect

The more you know, the more you know you don't know. Meanwhile, the less one knows, the more confident he is. This phenomenon of the inflated self-esteem and the delusion of adequacy is called “The Dunning-Kruger effect”. Why some people cannot adequately assess their skills and abilities? What consequences this may have and what distinguishes truly competent people? These and other issues are analyzed in this article. Full material is only available in Armenian․

 

  


The composition and risk characteristics of the credit portfolio in the financial system of the RA

In the current paper we present the composition and risk characteristics of the credit portfolio in the financial system of the RA. We demonstrate that in 2018 and 2019 the shares of consumer and mortgage loans rose at the expense of “dilution” of relative volumes of business loans. As a result of outstripping growth of consumer loans, a disbalance between incomes and loan liabilities has emerged in the sector of households. The dynamics of mortgage loans is problematic as well, since it is significantly above its medium-term trend. Concerning the reduction of relative volumes of business loans, it poses serious constraints to small and medium-sized enterprises. The improvement of this situation is related to financial rehabilitation of the private sector and revitalization of economic processes, which can restore sustainability of private debt via outpacing growth of GDP. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


Manipulation in politics: populist discourse

This article attempts to explain the essence and ideological components of the term of populism. The social and ideological origins of the new populism are revealed, and is made an attempt to explain the growing support of the public to populists. In this article, we have attempted to describe in details the features of populism at different stages of historical development. We have described the formulas for the success of populist governments in transitional and developed countries. We drew Parallels between liberalism and populism, explaining their differences. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


The COVID-19 pandemic and the challenge to fundamental rights

COVID-19 is a public health emergency - which is rapidly developing into a human rights crisis. States often impose restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus, without taking into account the fundamental rights and the requirements for their restriction. Since March 16, 2020, the right to assembly is completely restricted in Armenia while the functioning of a number of public facilities is permitted. А reasonable question arises, whether the implemented restrictions on fundamental rights are legitimate? Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


Stages, situation and prospects of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement process

After the NKR presidential and parliamentary elections in April and the change of power in the Republic of Armenia in 2018, a situation has been formulated when in Artsakh and the Republic of Armenia people who had no connection with the process or have been out of the circle directly involved in the issue, have taken a key role in the settlement process.

The obvious lack of necessary knowledge and experience among responsible structures and officials, the lack of advanced Armenian professional environment, the formation of unfavorable views on the conflict in various international arenas in recent years, both on the nature of the conflict and possible settlement scenarios, significantly expand the range of challenges and increase the likelihood of negative developments.

In order not to allow the settlement process to have irreversible dangerous developments and not to lose the unprecedented result achieved during the three decades of independence, it is necessary to put the activities aimed at ensuring a favorable result in the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict on various levels at the professional basis as soon as possible.

The article discusses the stages of the settlement process, reveals the evolution and results of the conceptual approaches used during them, the essence of the negotiated document, the challenges and possible developments.

Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


Analysis of the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia in the field of State Budget development and management (2018-2019)

The political changes that took place in the country in the spring of 2018 should have had an impact on the main financial document of the country, the development and implementation of the State Budget of the Republic of Armenia. Having a majority in the National Assembly, the "My Step" Alliance, since 2019 has an opportunity to develop the State Budget in accordance with their statements, ensure its implementation for the achievement of the announced “economic revolution” or at least for establishing basis for that.

Provisions relating to the State Budget and public finance were reflected in pre-election programme of “My step” Alliance, which received the support of the majority of Armenian citizens in the 2018, as well as in the "Program of the Government of the Republic of Armenia" adopted on February 8, 2019.  This study presents the promises made by the Government of the Republic of Armenia and the political majority in the public finance and analyses the steps taken by the Government for the implementation of that promises in period 2018-2019. Full material is only available in Armenian. 

  


Property tax reforms without introduction of market valuation system

The legislative package of property tax reforms, being amended multiple times over past years, was fully adopted by the National Assembly. That means higher real estate tax burden for households and firms, because of increased tax base.

The “Luys” Foundation has analyzed the legislative package on property taxes. The research mainly covers the following questions:

  • How much will the property tax burden increase in different cities and regions of Armenia?
  • Has the government been able to implement an effective system of market valuation of the real estate?
  • What kind of tools is the government going to use to mitigate the increase in the property tax burden for the socially vulnerable citizens?
  • Will local authorities be able to properly collect property tax, which will increase by several times?

Full material is only available in Armenian.

 

  


Comparative analysis of the European Parliament recommendations in the run-up to the 2017 and 2020 Eastern Partnership Summits

On June 19 the European Parliament approved the document of recommendations in the run-up to the 2020 Eastern Partnership Summit addressed to various EU institutions, which sets clear political guidelines for the further development of EU relations with its Eastern partners. In this analysis, we tried to compare the quotations on various issues of interest to Armenia accordingly from the similar documents published in the run-up to the 2017 and 2020 EaP Summits. The comparative analysis shows that the EU's approach to a number of key for Armenia issues have undergone negative changes compared to the 2017 document. Of particular concern are the assessments made in the document on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and commonly regarding the conflicts in the EAP region. The analysis shows that from the point of view of Armenian (including parliamentary) diplomacy, this document as a whole is a derogation from the 2017 document. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-May 2020

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Data from the 2019 report of the Anti-Corruption Body of the Council of Europe-GRECO for Armenia and comparison of overall ratings with those of other countries of the Eastern Partnership

The Council of Europe’s anti-corruption body-GRECO published its annual report for 2019, examining how its Member States have been implementing GRECO’s recommendations on the prevention of corruption among parliamentarians, judges and prosecutors. Earlier, the RA Ministry of Justice presented the Armenian translation of the second compliance report on the fulfillment of Armenia's commitments of the recommendations issued in the GRECO’s fourth evaluation report on Armenia. With this analysis, we tried to compare the assessments given to Armenia with those of other member states of the Eastern Partnership. We also touched upon those recommendations presented to Armenia in the fourth round evaluation report, which were not sufficiently implemented, or during the implementation of which the authorities made significant omissions. The study shows that the Armenian authorities did not make enough efforts to implement a number of recommendations; as a result, there are half measure solutions and serious omissions in various areas. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


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