Comparative analysis of economic crises in Armenia
The objective of the present comparative analysis is to compare the three economic crises which took place in Armenia during the history of its independence, namely the transition crisis of 1991-1993, world financial crisis of 2009 and current covid-19 created crisis of 2020. The purpose of analysis is to assess the depth of each crisis, reveal the main driving forces and causes of each crisis, as well as to point out the most dangerous consequences, that crisis (in the case of current 2020 crisis) may bring to. Full material is only available in Armenian․
The national security strategy of the Republic of Armenia in the context of changes in the external environment and in the region
For a modern state, the national security strategy is a key document; it sets guidelines for the further development of the state, for the realization of one of its main missions - to ensure security. Due to various circumstances, a comprehensive study of the external environment and an assessment of the corresponding threats are especially important for the development of a security strategy for Armenia. With this analysis we have tried to present some observations on the external security component of the security strategy. At the same time, we have analyzed the assessments of Armenia's external security environment, existing and potential threats and proposed strategic solutions within the framework of the new national security strategy. To this end, we have studied the external security environment in which the previous security strategy was developed and put into circulation, what situation we have today, to what extent the new strategy is equivalent to that environment, and the situation we can face in the medium term. Full material is only available in Armenian․
Analysis of the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia in the field of State Budget development and management (2018-2019)
After the well-known events of 2018, the current Government of the Republic of Armenia announced the need to create a free, dignified and happy citizen. Overcoming poverty, eliminating extreme poverty in a short time, strengthening social security, increasing the effectiveness of support for vulnerable groups, as well as creating a large number of new jobs were considered as the key components for achievement of this aim.
The purpose of this study is to analyse the promises made by the Government of the Republic of Armenia and the political majority to overcome poverty, promote social justice and employment, and the steps taken by the Government for the implementation of that promises. The full material is only available in Armenian.
Medium-Term Public Expenditure Framework for 2021-2023
The primary document that defines the medium-term (that is, for the upcoming three years) objectives of the government of the RA is the framework of public medium-term expenditures (MTEF), which is at the same time one of the main tools for fiscal policy communication. The effective use of the MTEF for that purpose is especially important in times of crisis (such as the 2020 year), as it can give policy signals to economic agents, positively affect expectations and decrease the uncertainty in the economy.
The present analysis is aimed at exploring the MTEF for 2021-2023, in particular the structure of the program, the main macroeconomic forecasts and directions of fiscal policy, which reflect the government's expectations regarding the further development of the economic situation as well as government actions to respond to the crisis and ensure a rapid economic recovery. Full material is only available in Armenian.
References to the Vienna and St. Petersburg agreements in the official statements of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs in 2016-2018 and 2018-2020; comparative analysis
The victory on the battlefield during the offensive operations of Azerbaijan during the April war of 2016 was effectively capitalized by the Armenian diplomacy. As a result, the Vienna and St. Petersburg agreements on building confidence and introducing mechanisms for investigating border incidents, as well as expanding the mission of the personal representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office became a priority in the negotiation process. After the political changes in Armenia in the spring of 2018, these agreements were removed from the agenda of the negotiation process, creating favorable conditions for new provocations by Azerbaijan. In response to the criticism on this issue after the July events at the front, the Armenian authorities began to justify themselves insisting that they did not exclude the Vienna and St. Petersburg agreements from the agenda of the negotiation process, while at the same time trying to question the importance of these agreements. In the framework of this comparative analysis, we have tried to study all the official statements and press releases of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs from April 2016 to July 2020, trying to compare the changes in their content before and after the change of power in Armenia. We tried to understand when the Vienna and St. Petersburg agreements were pushed out of the negotiating agenda, what are the priorities of the current negotiation process. Full material is only available in Armenian․
The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-June 2020
In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.
The illusion of self-confidence. The Dunning-Kruger effect
The more you know, the more you know you don't know. Meanwhile, the less one knows, the more confident he is. This phenomenon of the inflated self-esteem and the delusion of adequacy is called “The Dunning-Kruger effect”. Why some people cannot adequately assess their skills and abilities? What consequences this may have and what distinguishes truly competent people? These and other issues are analyzed in this article. Full material is only available in Armenian․
The composition and risk characteristics of the credit portfolio in the financial system of the RA
In the current paper we present the composition and risk characteristics of the credit portfolio in the financial system of the RA. We demonstrate that in 2018 and 2019 the shares of consumer and mortgage loans rose at the expense of “dilution” of relative volumes of business loans. As a result of outstripping growth of consumer loans, a disbalance between incomes and loan liabilities has emerged in the sector of households. The dynamics of mortgage loans is problematic as well, since it is significantly above its medium-term trend. Concerning the reduction of relative volumes of business loans, it poses serious constraints to small and medium-sized enterprises. The improvement of this situation is related to financial rehabilitation of the private sector and revitalization of economic processes, which can restore sustainability of private debt via outpacing growth of GDP. Full material is only available in Armenian․
Manipulation in politics: populist discourse
This article attempts to explain the essence and ideological components of the term of populism. The social and ideological origins of the new populism are revealed, and is made an attempt to explain the growing support of the public to populists. In this article, we have attempted to describe in details the features of populism at different stages of historical development. We have described the formulas for the success of populist governments in transitional and developed countries. We drew Parallels between liberalism and populism, explaining their differences. Full material is only available in Armenian․
The COVID-19 pandemic and the challenge to fundamental rights
COVID-19 is a public health emergency - which is rapidly developing into a human rights crisis. States often impose restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus, without taking into account the fundamental rights and the requirements for their restriction. Since March 16, 2020, the right to assembly is completely restricted in Armenia while the functioning of a number of public facilities is permitted. А reasonable question arises, whether the implemented restrictions on fundamental rights are legitimate? Full material is only available in Armenian․