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Post-war syndrome. Life after the war

For Americans, the Vietnam War is the bloodiest in the entire history of the state's existence. 8 years of military interventions took the lives of 60,000 people. 300,000 wounded and disabled soldiers returned to America from the battle zones, and 2,000 or more soldiers were considered missing. This war became a great psychological trauma for the American people. This war was one of the few in which American citizens were directly involved, in which they died, and in which they lost. As a result, among the ordinary citizens of the United States, there was a fear of new wars in which the United States may take part. In other words, because of the "Vietnam syndrome", the Americans simply refused to protect the interests of another nation at the cost of risking their own lives.

In the case of the war unleashed by Azerbaijan against Artsakh on September 27, 2020, for example, Syrian mercenaries fought on the part of Azerbaijan. According to the Syrian Court of Human Rights, at least 2,050 mercenaries in groups of 400 were taken out of Syria since the beginning of the armed conflict. This is a result of the fact that according to the materials appearing in various media after the April four-day war in 2016, the majority of the Azerbaijani population refused to participate in the conscription and serve in the army, realizing and evaluating the consequences of possible participation in the war. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  

 

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-November 2022

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Reference on the budget of Yerevan of 2023

The budget of Yerevan sets the priorities of the economy of the city for the upcoming year. In the budget the planned level of revenues, as well as its structure is presented. In addition, the planned level of expenditures and its distribution by functional and economic classifications are determined. The forecasting of revenues and expenditures is followed by the planning of the budget deficit and the sources of financing it. Given the importance of this document and the programs embedded there, the present analysis aims to assess whether the budget of Yerevan and its structure are consistent with the problems confronting the city. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The energy crisis in Europe and the factor of Azerbaijani gas

The pandemic of 2020 was accompanied by significant shocks in the global and European economy, as a result of which the global prices of energy, including natural gas, registered a record decline. However, already in mid-2021, world energy prices recorded a rapid increase, and the active hostilities that began in Ukraine in February 2022 sharply aggravated the energy crisis in Europe. As a result, the price of natural gas in Europe crossed the threshold of $3,000 per 1,000 cubic meters.

By the end of 2020, despite the 44-day war, Azerbaijan successfully put into operation the last component of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), the Trans Adriatic Gas Pipeline (TAP), and began direct gas supplies to Europe. Thus, Azerbaijan has become one of the important actors in the European gas market, and although the share of Azerbaijani gas there is small and does not have a decisive influence on the formation of the common market and pricing, the political factor of Azerbaijani gas obviously and significantly increases the political weight of Baku in Europe.

Back in 2019, the “Luys” Foundation published an extensive analysis in which it raised the issue of Azerbaijan's role in the European gas market. However, taking into account the fundamental changes in the world and European energy markets in recent years, geopolitical reshuffling, as well as the new realities that have developed in our region after the 44-day war, we tried to rethink the issue of the previous material in the framework of this analysis. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Reference on the state budget of the RA of 2023

The present analysis is devoted to the investigation of the key aspects of the state budget of the RA. First, we consider the projections of macroeconomic variables forming the basis of the budget, then we analyse the planned values of parameters of the general and central budget of the RA. We pay particular attention to the comparison of the planned values of revenues and expenditures with the actual levels observed in previous years. In the end we make conclusions in order to assess whether the budget addresses the problems that exist in the RA. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The results of US midterm elections

On November 8, 2022 Congress midterm elections took place in the USA. These elections are usually held in the middle of the U.S. president's 4-year term. As a result of these elections, the House of Representatives will be controlled by the Republicans, while the majority in the Senate will continue to be maintained by the Democratic Party. This article will analyze the battle for control of Congress, the results of the members of the Armenian Caucus in the elections, as well as the possible impact of the midterm elections on the change of the U.S. foreign policy. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economi0c developments in the economy of the RA for January-October 2022

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The positioning of the Erdogan regime as a mediator in international relations

The world has entered a new and tense phase of international relations, conflicts and violent geopolitical developments. Trying to get involved in various processes of international relations between other states, Turkey strives for global influence. Assuming the role of a mediator in international relations, Turkey receives greater autonomy from such hegemons as the United States and Russia. In addition to strengthening Turkey's role on international platforms, this tactic is often used to also strengthen the position of the Erdogan administration and the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The mediation strategy has been actively used and continues to be used in the Middle East, Central Asia, within the framework of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in the South Caucasus and in relations to a number of other states. There are also manifestations of such a strategy towards Armenia and Artsakh. Researching and understanding the latter is necessary in the context of the national security of the Armenian states. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


A study on the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first nine months of 2022

The objective of the present analysis is to assess the execution of the state budget of the RA in the given period. First, we describe the general state of the economy of the RA, namely the driving forces of economic activity, the developments in individual sectors of the economy, the behavior of the components of the demand – consumption and investment – and so on. Afterwards, we analyze the performance of government revenues and expenditures by comparing the actual and planned values of the respective indicators. We conclude the analysis by summarizing the main observations and results. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


Legality of cyber-means of warfare and the RoA policy in the field of cyber defense

The issues of a clear, measurable, relevant, substantive and timely adopted strategies of national security and state defense should undoubtedly be among the key issues of the state policy of the Republic of Armenia, taking into account the aggression carried out by Azerbaijan and Turkey against the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Artsakh and the high probability of its continuous manifestation also in future. It is also indisputable that information security, cybersecurity and cyber defense are a necessary and very important component of national security and state defense in the 21st century, and the development and implementation of comprehensive strategic documents in the mentioned areas (including their regular revision and improvement) are indispensable means for the effective management of these areas and for effectively ensuring national security and state defense.

Cyberspace, along with land, air and water, has long been considered by states as a usual domain for warfare, at the same time cyber weapons, along with conventional weapons, have been perceived as alternative means of warfare. The issue of ensuring cybersecurity and cyber defense is today considered around the world as one of the key challenges to international security. The use of cyber weapons during armed conflicts is lawful under International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and IHL rules and regulations are applicable to the use of cyber means of warfare. It is not a coincidence that over the past decades states have been paying more and more attention to the issues of cyber defense in the context of ensuring the state defense from external enemies primarily by developing a state strategy and the main directions of state policy in the field of cyber defense.

The Republic of Armenia started undertaking specific measures in the field of informational security and ensuring the formation and development of the so-called electronic society already in the first decade of the 2000s. In 2008-2009 the Government of Armenia adopted a number of strategic documents on cybersecurity. In October 2017 the President of Armenia and the Armenian Government initiated the process of improving the relevant strategic documents in the field and bringing them in line with the challenges of the modern world. In particular, the documents which were regulating the field of cybersecurity lost their force, and parallel to that, in the end of 2017 beginning of 2018, draft strategies on cybersecurity and on ensuring information security and information policy of the RoA were developed. One would think that these documents, which have a strategic importance for the RoA, should have been considered as a priority by the state and, accordingly, should have been improved, finalized and adopted long ago, and should have by now been in the process of implementation. However, the current study leads to sad conclusions: the reality is that since 2017 to the present day there are no strategic documents in the field of information security, cybersecurity and military cyber defense in the Republic of Armenia.

Over the past five years the passivity and inaction of the government bodies in the issues of development of information security, cybersecurity and cyber defense, the development of state policy and the approval and implementation of strategic documents in the mentioned areas are unacceptable, taking into account the pressing security and defense problems that the Republic of Armenia is facing today. The absence of state vision and policy in the field of cybersecurity and military cyber defense, as well as the absence of the relevant strategic documents in the RoA is a dangerous reality in the context of the imperative of effective organization of RoA defense.

The relevance and urgency of the problem is additionally evidenced by the indicators of the Republic of Armenia on ensuring cybersecurity and cyber defense. Thus, according to the data published by the Global Cybersecurity Index for 2020, only three countries among the countries of the region (Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan), namely Kyrgyzstan (49.64), Tajikistan (17.1) and Turkmenistan (no data available) have a lower ranking than the Republic of Armenia. At the same time, according to the National Cybersecurity Index as of 2020, among other countries Armenia ranks 90th with a minimum score of zero for cybersecurity policy development, a minimum score of zero for the analysis of cyberspace threats, a minimum score of zero for cyberspace crisis management, a minimum score of zero for the defense of critical infrastructures and protection of digital services, and a minimum score of zero for the ability to organize military cyber operations. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


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