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Analysis of RA economic growth structure (in the context of prospective development)

One of the main goals of economic policy is ensuring economic growth, although the stability of economic growth is often more essential than its growth rate, as under conditions of inconsistent growth, predictability decreases as well as the implementation of investment projects oriented to long-term development is jeopardized.

The research is dedicated to the comprehensive analysis of economic growth for revealing the optimal track of economic development of RA.

The research carried out the analysis of the current economic situation of RA and its development dynamics, observed the most significant changes that resulted from the upheavals in recent years and their impact on economic growth.

Taking into account that in recent years, the economic growth occurs without the "significant involvement" of industry and agriculture, the research refers to the perspectives and threats of such growth. For this purpose, the structure of the RA economy was compared with several countries with similar macroeconomic conditions. Considering the fact that the decrease in the "role" of the "exportable" sectors of the economy was mainly caused by the sharp increase in capital inflow (external remittances) as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, the impact of this increase was also analyzed. Full material is only available in Armenian.

 

  


Election of the new Speaker of the US House of Representatives

In the United States, the election of the speaker of the House of Representatives takes place once every two years after the results of the midterm elections. Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker of the House of Representatives lost her position as a Speaker following the victory of the Republicans in the lower house of the U.S. Congress.  The new Speaker of the 118th U.S. Congress won a majority only in the 15th round of voting, demonstrating the division within the Republican Party. This article will address the role of the Speaker of the House of Representatives in the U.S. political system as well as the peculiarities of the Speaker’s election, the complications associated with the election of the newly elected Speaker, the role of Donald Trump in those elections and the cooperation of the newly elected Speaker with the Armenian community in the United States. Full material is only available in Armenian.

 

  


The Impact of New World Order Formation on the Settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Self-Determination or Genocide?

Geopolitical transformations have radical effects in many spheres of public life. Its most prominent manifestations are observed in ethno-political conflicts and their settlement processes, especially  when they are accompanied by serious regional turbulent processes. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and its settlement process are the most typical cases of such perturbations. Due to the 2018 change of power in Armenia, the normally developing process of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement within the framework of the main principles of international law ended up in sharp upheavals, succumbing to the logic of the sharply heated West-Russia geopolitical confrontation. The formation of antagonistic relations between the co-chairs of the Minsk Group undermined their mediation efforts, which leaves two options for the resolution of the conflict in the conditions of the effects of the Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression of 2020, the continuous aggressive actions of Azerbaijan: the realization of the right to self-determination with the support of international community or the genocide of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Post-war syndrome. Life after the war

For Americans, the Vietnam War is the bloodiest in the entire history of the state's existence. 8 years of military interventions took the lives of 60,000 people. 300,000 wounded and disabled soldiers returned to America from the battle zones, and 2,000 or more soldiers were considered missing. This war became a great psychological trauma for the American people. This war was one of the few in which American citizens were directly involved, in which they died, and in which they lost. As a result, among the ordinary citizens of the United States, there was a fear of new wars in which the United States may take part. In other words, because of the "Vietnam syndrome", the Americans simply refused to protect the interests of another nation at the cost of risking their own lives.

In the case of the war unleashed by Azerbaijan against Artsakh on September 27, 2020, for example, Syrian mercenaries fought on the part of Azerbaijan. According to the Syrian Court of Human Rights, at least 2,050 mercenaries in groups of 400 were taken out of Syria since the beginning of the armed conflict. This is a result of the fact that according to the materials appearing in various media after the April four-day war in 2016, the majority of the Azerbaijani population refused to participate in the conscription and serve in the army, realizing and evaluating the consequences of possible participation in the war. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  

 

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-November 2022

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Reference on the budget of Yerevan of 2023

The budget of Yerevan sets the priorities of the economy of the city for the upcoming year. In the budget the planned level of revenues, as well as its structure is presented. In addition, the planned level of expenditures and its distribution by functional and economic classifications are determined. The forecasting of revenues and expenditures is followed by the planning of the budget deficit and the sources of financing it. Given the importance of this document and the programs embedded there, the present analysis aims to assess whether the budget of Yerevan and its structure are consistent with the problems confronting the city. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The energy crisis in Europe and the factor of Azerbaijani gas

The pandemic of 2020 was accompanied by significant shocks in the global and European economy, as a result of which the global prices of energy, including natural gas, registered a record decline. However, already in mid-2021, world energy prices recorded a rapid increase, and the active hostilities that began in Ukraine in February 2022 sharply aggravated the energy crisis in Europe. As a result, the price of natural gas in Europe crossed the threshold of $3,000 per 1,000 cubic meters.

By the end of 2020, despite the 44-day war, Azerbaijan successfully put into operation the last component of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), the Trans Adriatic Gas Pipeline (TAP), and began direct gas supplies to Europe. Thus, Azerbaijan has become one of the important actors in the European gas market, and although the share of Azerbaijani gas there is small and does not have a decisive influence on the formation of the common market and pricing, the political factor of Azerbaijani gas obviously and significantly increases the political weight of Baku in Europe.

Back in 2019, the “Luys” Foundation published an extensive analysis in which it raised the issue of Azerbaijan's role in the European gas market. However, taking into account the fundamental changes in the world and European energy markets in recent years, geopolitical reshuffling, as well as the new realities that have developed in our region after the 44-day war, we tried to rethink the issue of the previous material in the framework of this analysis. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Reference on the state budget of the RA of 2023

The present analysis is devoted to the investigation of the key aspects of the state budget of the RA. First, we consider the projections of macroeconomic variables forming the basis of the budget, then we analyse the planned values of parameters of the general and central budget of the RA. We pay particular attention to the comparison of the planned values of revenues and expenditures with the actual levels observed in previous years. In the end we make conclusions in order to assess whether the budget addresses the problems that exist in the RA. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The results of US midterm elections

On November 8, 2022 Congress midterm elections took place in the USA. These elections are usually held in the middle of the U.S. president's 4-year term. As a result of these elections, the House of Representatives will be controlled by the Republicans, while the majority in the Senate will continue to be maintained by the Democratic Party. This article will analyze the battle for control of Congress, the results of the members of the Armenian Caucus in the elections, as well as the possible impact of the midterm elections on the change of the U.S. foreign policy. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economi0c developments in the economy of the RA for January-October 2022

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


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