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Issues in the crediting sector of Armenia as a result of the change of power in 2018 and their macroeconomic implications in the context of the 2020 turmoil

As a result of the short-sighted and populist policy of the Armenian government the process of accumulation of problematic risks has been registered in the loan portfolio of the financial system of Armenia, since 2018. Subsequently, the credit sector faced certain challenges that had a significant negative impact on the macroeconomic environment of Armenia due to the 2020 crisis. The above-mentioned developments were analyzed in the work. The study shows that government actions led to a sharp deepening of the debt burden (in the form of consumer and mortgage loans) of the household sector in 2018-2019. In the crisis environment of 2020, this contributed to a much deeper decline in the level of welfare of the population, reflected in both a sharp decline in demand (consumption) and an increase in the volume of low-quality loans. In the post-crisis period, the problem of household debt burden remains unresolved, which raises additional concerns amid the negative shocks to the Armenian economy following the escalating Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022. As a result of government short-sightedness and a post-2018 boom in mortgage lending, the fiscal space to weather 2020 shocks has been smaller than expected. At the same time, the...

  


Armenian "6 principles" - a basis for negotiations or a diplomatic adventure?

In an interview with the Armenian Public Television on May 13 Ambassador for Special Assignments Edmon Marukyan unveiled 6 points presented by Armenia in response to 5 points previously submitted by Azerbaijan, on the basis of which it is proposed to start negotiations on a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The “Luys” Foundation, referring to the points published by both Azerbaijan and Armenia, tried to analyze their content. We noted that the “proposals/principles” presented by Azerbaijan and Armenia are extremely incomparable both in terms of their content, international perception and the reaction of mediators. At the same time, we presented some proposals that, if properly formulated and presented, could/can give the Armenian side the opportunity to approach the start of the negotiation process from a position that is more reasonable, internationally acceptable and invulnerable from the point of view of international law. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


Armenian lobby under the Biden administration

This article discusses the impact of the lobbying organizations on U.S. policy, particularly through ethnic and professional lobbies. Special attention is paid to the priorities of Armenian ethnic lobbying organizations in the United States, more specifically the activities of the Armenian National Committee of America and the Armenian Assembly of America, as well as their priorities under the Biden administration. For this purpose, the specific steps taken by the Armenian lobbying organizations and their achievements within the framework of the above-mentioned priorities were analyzed. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


Business support incentives applied in Armenia after the change of power

In 2018, the new authorities of the Republic of Armenian announced about the start of an "economic revolution", one of the key components of which was the assessment of the efficiency and transparency of tax and customs incentives provided to businesses, the elimination of inefficient incentives and the definition of new more targeted and effective support mechanisms. What we have today? What steps have been taken by the government to achieve the mentioned goals? This analysis presents the main tax and customs incentives applied to support businesses in Armenia, the main changes done in recent years and the steps undertaken by the Government to increase efficiency and accountability of the applied incentives. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


On the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first quarter of 2022

The objective of the present analysis is to assess the execution of the state budget of the RA in the given period. First, we describe the general state of the economy of the RA, namely the driving forces of economic activity, the developments in individual sectors of the economy. Afterwards, we analyze the performance of government revenues and expenditures by comparing the actual and planned values of the respective indicators. We conclude the analysis by summarizing the main observations and results. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF INFLATION. How much has the real standard of living of the population decreased due to accelerating inflation since the end of 2020?

In 2021 the highest rate of inflation of the past 10 years was registered, which is driven by both external and internal factors. High inflation has had significant negative socio-economic consequences, that are analysed in this study. The paper presents the macroeconomic implications of accelerating inflation and raising interest rate of the Central Bank of Armenia (as a response to high inflation), as well as the effects of inflation on the living standards of the population. The results show that inflation has significantly slowed down the real growth of the population's income. At the same time, the income growth of those with high living standards was significantly higher than that of the socially vulnerable population, resulting in increased income inequality. Moreover, due to the leading increase in the prices of primary consumer goods, the increase in prices was 8.5% for the poorest households and 6.1% for the richest. In these conditions, in 2022. As a result of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, since February 2012, world prices for energy and food have risen sharply, which will inevitably lead to an acceleration of inflation in Armenia (already noticeable in March), meaning that that the negative effects described above...

  


What is hidden in the indicators of the Stockholm Institute (SIPRI) database related to Armenia?

In this article, we tried to figure out what the database of the arms transfer program of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is, to what extent it reflects the real picture of the arms trade, and what interesting indicators about Armenia are hidden there. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Once again? “Rudderless, scattered, non-ideological” Ignorance, deceit and trickery signal new catastrophe

The article discusses the programme approaches to the Artsakh issue presented by the Government of the Republic of Armenia on April 13-14, during the discussion of the 2021 budget execution at the sitting of the National Assembly. It addresses the references made with regard to the conflict settlement documents, the issues related to Artsakh's self-determination and Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, statements made on behalf of the international community, issues related to the settlement of the conflict with the consent of Azerbaijan, the aims and objectives of the lawsuit filed by Armenia in the International Court of Justice, the possibility of concluding a "peace treaty" between Armenia and Azerbaijan and its consequences, the principles put forward by Azerbaijan in this regard, as well as the self-assessment of the activities of the RA Prime Minister. The analysis of the views on these issues and the comparison of the results show that regardless of a non-specific style of programme approaches, the focused development of key ideas and the subsequent use of destructive approaches suggest that, in terms of content, a comprehensive position was presented on the issues vital for the country, which can be unconditionally conside...

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-March 2022

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


ON THE THRESHOLD OF A NEW CRISIS. The possible impact of sanctions against Russia in 2022 on the Armenian economy

The objective of this research is to assess the effects of new economic sanctions currently being imposed on the Russian Federation on Armenian economy. To reach this objective the effects of sanctions imposed on the Russian economy since 2014 and its transmission into Armenian economy were studied, as well as historical economic losses of both countries associated with these sanctions were estimated through econometric tools. Also the changes in the resilience of Armenian economy and economic dependence from Russian economy since 2014 were revealed. On the basis of these studies, by applying multivariate econometric models (specifically Structural Vector Autoregression/SVAR/ model) and a general equilibrium model (Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal/GIMF/ DSGE model), three scenarios were designed to capture the effects of new sanctions (imposed since February 2022) on Armenian economy: the “baseline” scenario (the Russian economy declines by 11% in 2022), the “optimistic” scenario (the Russian economy declines by 7%), and the “pessimistic” scenario (the Russian economy declines by 15%). The scenarios suggest a range of possible developments in the RA economy, starting from growth decelerat...

  


A new challenge to the independence of the judiciary: What аre the observations of the Venice Commission and how does the executive proceed?

The Ministry of Justice has initiated another “reform” that puts the independence of the judiciary under further threat. Initially, the Ministry attempted to carry out the “reform” in an easy way, only defining a new incompatibility requirement for judges, which should serve as a ground for immediate termination of the powers of the judge. Meanwhile, after receiving a critical opinion from the Venice Commission, the Ministry was obliged to revise the draft proposal. However, the Ministry of Justice ignored core remarks of the Venice Commission relating to the impermissibility of giving retroactive effect to new grounds of termination of the powers of a judge. As a result, the Ministry created the illusion that the amended draft law is in line with the observations of the Venice Commission, while the reality is entirely different. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-February 2022

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Reference on the execution of the budget of the city of Yerevan (2021)

The budget execution report of Yerevan represents the main results – achievements and failures - of activities of the city council in the given period. It shows by how much the actual revenue collection deviates from the planned level. Additionally, the report demonstrates whether the expenditures were made in accordance with the prespecified plan. The budget execution report of Yerevan also characterizes the structure of actual revenues and expenditures. The goal of the present analysis is to study the foregoing report and to make necessary conclusions. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


“Law on levying the property of illegal origin” and problems of its constitutionality

One of the key measures taken within the frameworks of the anti-corruption strategy of the Government of the Republic of Armenia was the adoption of the “Lawon Levying the Property of Illegal Origin” which provides for mechanism of non-conviction based confiscation of property. The publication examines various aspects of constitutionality of the law, in particular issues of proportionality of interferences with a number of fundamental rights, including rights to property, the retroactive effect of laws, the right to a fair trial. The analysis can be useful for experts in the field, advocates, and the legal community in their research and practical work. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January 2022

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Demographic situation and emigration in Armenia։ a blurry future

Demographic problems are an integral part of the modern world. Armenia has faced demographic problems (low birth rate, emigration, ‘brain drain’, etc.) since independence. After the so-called revolution, the newly formed Government of the Republic of Armenia proclaimed a sharp increase in the population of the country, due to a significant reduction in the rate of emigration and an increase in repatriation, as one of the main factors of development, including economic, of the Republic of Armenia. What we have today? What steps have been taken by the government to achieve the mentioned goals? This study addresses these issues, as well as analyses the impact of demographic problems and emigration on the Armenian economy. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


The Index of Economic Freedom in the RA (2022)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Another diplomatic failure of the Armenian authorities: why were some pro-Armenian statements left out of the important documents of the European Parliament?

On February 17, 2022, the European Parliament approved two important documents: the 2021 Annual Reports on “the Implementation of the Common Foreign and Security Policy” and “the Implementation of the Common Security and Defense Policy”. In this article, we tried to compare them with the documents of the same nature approved by the EU in 2020 and highlight their key differences regarding Armenia. We recorded that although, through the efforts of the opposition and individuals, some pro-Armenian formulations on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict were preserved in the 2021 documents, in general, a number of key statements important for Armenia that were contained in the previous year’s reports were excluded from the new documents. The flirtation of the current Armenian authorities with Ankara and Baku has obviously weakened the critical attitude of the international community, including the EU, towards Turkey and Azerbaijan on Armenian issues. Full material is only available in Armenian.  

  


"Winter Geopolitical Games - 2022" - What does the statement of the leaders of Russia and China on international relations mean?

The most important episode of the opening of the Olympics in Beijing was, of course, not an unprecedented large-scale show specific to China, and not even a diplomatic boycott by the West, but a joint statement on international relations made by the leaders of China and Russia immediately before the opening of the Olympic Games. In the framework of this analysis, we have tried to address the most important messages of the joint statement of Putin and Xi Jinping, to understand what impact it will have on international relations and the policy of small countries. We have fixed that this joint Russian-Chinese application in the field of international relations can greatly change their logic. A new military-political pole of two superpowers is being formed, each of which, although maintains its independence and peculiarities, but they have a common position on important international issues. This means that in the near future, the confrontation on various international issues between China/Russia on the one hand and the US/NATO on the other will intensify, which in turn will put small states in front of a difficult geopolitical choice. Armenia cannot afford to get involved in the "Beijing Winter Geopolitical Games", but also cannot r...

  


Corruption Perceptions Index in the RA (2021)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-December 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Why did Turkish authoritism come to replace the American "democracy"? US ideological failure in the Middle East and Afghanistan (Central Asia) and Turkey's rapid transition from hybrid democracy to authoritarianism

Since the Cold War, and also after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the informal Anglo-Saxon leaders of the collective West, the US and the UK have sought to establish loyal regimes in the countries of the Middle East, Central Asia and the post-Soviet space in order to serve them to their own geopolitical and geo-economic interests. This process could not take place without a certain ideological accompaniment. Initially, the countries and peoples of the region were offered the model of Western democracy and the Western path of development as a "compensation" for the "desired" geopolitical choice. However, the ideological failure of the US in the Middle East and Afghanistan forced the West to reconsider its long-term strategy in this matter. An interesting "coincidence": the transformation of US policy in the Middle East was accompanied by a change in the political system in Turkey. For the peoples of the region, first of all the political elites, the "Turkish authoritarianism" wrapped in religious (Sunni) and ethnic (Turkiс) ideological threads is much more perceptible and exemplary. In fact, the West, in the form of a new Turkish authoritarian model, offers the countries of the region a choice between "ethnic-religious authorit...

  


Results of Jo Biden's first Summit for Democracy

The 46th President of the United States Joe Biden has repeatedly stated that the democracies of the world must unite to face the common challenges together. True to his promise made during the presidential campaign, Biden hosted the first Summit for Democracy on December 9-10, which took place online. As it became clear from the results of the first Summit for Democracy, the aim of the latter is not to divide the world into democratic and non-democratic countries, but to pressure non-democratic states. Anti-Chinese, anti-Russian and anti-Iranian statements were made during the three days of the Summit. This article will examine the key points made during the three days of the first Summit for Democracy, the presented new initiatives, the speeches of the leaders of a number of participating countries, as well as the incidents related to the Summit. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-November 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Reference on the budget of Yerevan of 2022

The budget of Yerevan sets the priorities of the economy of the city for the upcoming year. In the budget the planned level of revenues, as well as its structure is presented. In addition, the planned level of expenditures and its distribution by functional and economic classifications are determined. The forecasting of revenues and expenditures is followed by the planning of the budget deficit and the sources of financing it. Given the importance of this document and the programs embedded there, the present analysis aims to assess whether the budget of Yerevan and its structure are consistent with the problems confronting the city. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Comparison of activities done by the three governments of the Republic of Armenia during 2017-2021 according to their programmes

Immediately after its formation, each government presents the main directions of its activities for the next five years - the program of the government. This is not just a document, it presents the directions and approaches of the government's policy, the envisaged reforms and steps for the coming years. Further activities of the government should follow this program and should be aimed at its implementation. What reforms were foreseen by the programs of the governments of 2017-2021, which of them were implemented? This study addresses these issues, presents the policy approaches of the three governments and the process of their implementation. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


Comparison of activities done by the three governments of the Republic of Armenia during 2017-2021 according to their programmes

Immediately after its formation, each government presents the main directions of its activities for the next five years - the program of the government. This is not just a document, it presents the directions and approaches of the government's policy, the envisaged reforms and steps for the coming years. Further activities of the government should follow this program and should be aimed at its implementation. What reforms were foreseen by the programs of the governments of 2017-2021, which of them were implemented? This study addresses these issues, presents the policy approaches of the three governments and the process of their implementation. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


Comparison of activities done by the three governments of the Republic of Armenia during 2017-2021 according to their programmes

Immediately after its formation, each government presents the main directions of its activities for the next five years - the program of the government. This is not just a document, it presents the directions and approaches of the government's policy, the envisaged reforms and steps for the coming years. Further activities of the government should follow this program and should be aimed at its implementation. What reforms were foreseen by the programs of the governments of 2017-2021, which of them were implemented? This study addresses these issues, presents the policy approaches of the three governments and the process of their implementation. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


Comparison of activities done by the three governments of the Republic of Armenia during 2017-2021 according to their programmes

Immediately after its formation, each government presents the main directions of its activities for the next five years - the program of the government. This is not just a document, it presents the directions and approaches of the government's policy, the envisaged reforms and steps for the coming years. Further activities of the government should follow this program and should be aimed at its implementation. What reforms were foreseen by the programs of the governments of 2017-2021, which of them were implemented? This study addresses these issues, presents the policy approaches of the three governments and the process of their implementation. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


Comparison of activities done by the three governments of the Republic of Armenia during 2017-2021 according to their programmes

Immediately after its formation, each government presents the main directions of its activities for the next five years - the program of the government. This is not just a document, it presents the directions and approaches of the government's policy, the envisaged reforms and steps for the coming years. Further activities of the government should follow this program and should be aimed at its implementation. What reforms were foreseen by the programs of the governments of 2017-2021, which of them were implemented? This study addresses these issues, presents the policy approaches of the three governments and the process of their implementation. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


Comparison of activities done by the three governments of the Republic of Armenia during 2017-2021 according to their programmes

Immediately after its formation, each government presents the main directions of its activities for the next five years - the program of the government. This is not just a document, it presents the directions and approaches of the government's policy, the envisaged reforms and steps for the coming years. Further activities of the government should follow this program and should be aimed at its implementation. What reforms were foreseen by the programs of the governments of 2017-2021, which of them were implemented? This study addresses these issues, presents the policy approaches of the three governments and the process of their implementation. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


Comparison of activities done by the three governments of the Republic of Armenia during 2017-2021 according to their programmes

Immediately after its formation, each government presents the main directions of its activities for the next five years - the program of the government. This is not just a document, it presents the directions and approaches of the government's policy, the envisaged reforms and steps for the coming years. Further activities of the government should follow this program and should be aimed at its implementation. What reforms were foreseen by the programs of the governments of 2017-2021, which of them were implemented? This study addresses these issues, presents the policy approaches of the three governments and the process of their implementation. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


Reference on the state budget of the RA of 2022

The present analysis is devoted to the investigation of the key aspects of the state budget of the RA. First, we consider the projections of macroeconomic variables forming the basis of the budget, then we analyse the planned values of parameters of the general and central budget of the RA. We pay particular attention to the comparison of the planned values of revenues and expenditures with the actual levels observed in previous years. In the end we make conclusions in order to assess whether the budget addresses the problems that exist in the RA. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


What is Joe Biden's “Summit for Democracy”?

The 46th President of the United States Joe Biden is deeply convinced that the democracies of the world must unite to face the common challenges together. It is no coincidence that during the presidential campaign, the unification of the world's democracies on one platform was a priority for Biden. The goal was to organize a Democracy Summit in the first year of his tenure. Adhering to its promise, Biden will hold the first summit of Democracy on December 9-10, which will be followed by the second offline Summit exactly one year later. In the framework of this article, the origins and goals of the summit will be revealed, as well as the rationale behind the selection of the participating countries. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


The so-called "Zangezur Corridor": an economic perspective or a panturan political project?

In recent months, Azerbaijan and Turkey have been actively lobbying the so-called "Zangezur Corridor" at various international platforms. In doing so, they skillfully disguise their political aspirations to build a corridor through the sovereign territory of Armenia with an economic rationale, trying to create an impression among the international community that this corridor will bring significant benefits to the East-West trade and cargo transportation. As a result of this analysis, based on the study of the congestion and economic efficiency of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, we came to the conclusion that the so-called "Zangezur Corridor" or Nakhichevan Corridor has no significant economic value. This is a purely political project that aims to serve the pan-Turanian programs and geopolitical interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


A study on the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first nine months of 2021

The objective of the present analysis is to assess the execution of the state budget of the RA in the given period. First, we describe the general state of the economy of the RA, namely the driving forces of economic activity, the developments in individual sectors of the economy, the behavior of the components of the demand – consumption and investment – and so on. Afterwards, we analyze the performance of government revenues and expenditures by comparing the actual and planned values of the respective indicators. We conclude the analysis by summarizing the main observations and results. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


100 days of Lilit Makunts activities

The objective of this analysis is to study the efficiency of the activities of the 7th Ambassador of Armenia to the United States Mrs. Lilit Makunts during the first 100 days in office.  For that purpose, the following issues were separately analyzed: Ambassador’s work with the Biden administration, Congress, Armenian community and Armenian organizations as well as public diplomacy on social media, in the American press, in think-tanks etc. The subject of a separate study will be the bilateral agenda proposed by the Ambassador and its peculiarities. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-October 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The impact of China's regional policy on the countries of the South Caucasus

China's growing interest and involvement in the Greater Middle East also has an impact on the geopolitical processes in the South Caucasus. Initially, after the collapse of the USSR, the main struggle for influence and dominance in the region was between the West and the Russian Federation. However, in recent years, on the one hand, the strengthening of the positions of regional actors, such as Turkey and Iran, on the other hand, the growing interest of China in the region have made the struggle of major powers for supremacy in the South Caucasus more dynamic and variegated. Within the framework of this analysis, we studied the impact of China's regional policy on the South Caucasus countries, in this context, presenting our vision of the Armenian-Chinese relations. This article is part of a comprehensive analysis published by the “Luys” Foundation entitled "China's policy in the Middle East and South Caucasus on the example of relations with Turkey and Iran" which you can read at the following link: https://www.luys.am/index.php?m=publicationsOne&pid=246&lang=eng

  


The Key Targets of the Economic Policy of the RA Government

What is the economic development strategy of the government of the Republic of Armenia after the change of power in April-May 2018, and what are its benchmarks? Why and how did the RA executive power fail the state economic policy and what are the main reasons for the failures? How does the current government see the future of the Armenian economy in the next 5 years? Are these ideas realistic and what can actually be predicted? The objective of this study is to provide answers to the questions posed by analyzing the key goals specified in the programs of the government for 2019 and 2021: from economic growth to structural economic reforms, from promises to improve the quality of life of the population and ensure social protection to effective management of public finances and ensuring macroeconomic stability. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


Content analysis of the statements of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs after the 44-day war. Why did the basic principles disappear? What do we mean saying

The OSCE Minsk Group remains the only internationally recognized structure for a final and long-term settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, at least as long as neither side officially announced its rejection of this format. The cornerstone of the conflict has always been the fight of the Artsakh Armenians for the realization of the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, which, after long negotiations, was fixed by the parties to the conflict and the co-chairs in the form of basic principles and elements. Shortly after the end of the 44-day war, on December 3, 2020, the statement of the MFAs of the Co-chair countries raised some hopes for the resumption of the comprehensive settlement process. However, in the following months, the Minsk Group statements underwent significant substantive changes; the reference to the basic principles of the conflict settlement was gradually removed from the public texts. In the framework of this article, we have tried to understand why the basic principles disappeared from the official statements of the Minsk Group, why the references to them are much more important than the fluid statements made by Armenian officials about the status of Artsakh.

  


Turkey-China relations: from cooperation to competition

From the point of view of correct understanding of China's policy in the Middle East, it is impossible to ignore the latter's relations with Turkey, which has a huge influence in the region and plays an important economic, communication, military-political role. Turkey is involved in almost all geopolitical processes and conflicts in the region, and is an important geographical hub within the framework of China's "Belt and Road" initiative. Ankara's influence and pan-Turkic aspirations from the Caucasus to Central Asia are at least a matter of long-term concern for China. In the framework of this analysis, we have studied the peculiarities of Turkey-China relations. This article is part of a comprehensive analysis published by the “Luys” Foundation entitled "China's policy in the Middle East and South Caucasus on the example of relations with Turkey and Iran" which you can read at the following link:https://www.luys.am/index.php?m=publicationsOne&pid=246&lang=eng

  


Present and future of Iranian-Chinese strategic cooperation

Any superpower, if it pursues the goal of dominance or at least a decisive role in the Middle East, can not ignore the interests of the major regional powers. Iran is perhaps one of the most important regional actors in the Greater Middle East, and China has key interests in that country. In order to properly analyze Beijing's regional policy, we have tried to understand the peculiarities and prospects of its relations with Tehran. This article is part of a comprehensive analysis published by the “Luys” Foundation entitled "China's policy in the Middle East and South Caucasus on the example of relations with Turkey and Iran" which you can read at the following link: https://www.luys.am/index.php?m=publicationsOne&pid=246&lang=eng

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-September 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Incomes of the population of Armenia after the change of government

After the political changes in 2018, the new Government of the Republic of Armenia announced about the need of creating a free, dignified, happy citizen, the key factors of which are improving the living standards of the population, more equal and fair distribution of incomes, poverty alleviation, eradication of extreme poverty and strengthening of social security. What has been done by the government to fulfill its promises and what results have been achieved? How the income of the population has changed in 2017-2021? Has the standard of living of the society improved? This study examines these and a number of similar issues by comparative analysis of indicators for 2017-2020 as well as by analyzing the feasibility of implementing the relevant provisions the program of the newly formed government for 2021-2026. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


44-Day War and the Gradual Decline of “America First” Diplomacy

Washington has been involved in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict within the format of the OSCE Minsk Group since the beginning. Even in 2001, the US-mediated negotiations seemed to offer a solution to the conflict. However, Washington's involvement gradually waned as a result of important but not vital US interests in the region, Trump's promotion of "America First" diplomacy, and the strong influence of the Russian factor in the region. In the early stages of the Artsakh war, unleashed by Azerbaijan in September 2020, the Trump administration took a significantly more passive stance than the leaders of the other two Minsk Group co-chairing countries. However, high-level involvement gradually increased, not limited to the institutional level. The war also coincided with the US pre-election campaign, which somehow affected the stance of Trump’s administration. Unlike the previous administration, the Biden administration attempts to increase the US influence in the region. Against the background of recent statements made by official Washington, it can be concluded that this has a direct reflection in the conflict settlement process. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-August 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


China's ambitions in the race of superpowers for the Greater Middle East

China, which has been growing at an unprecedented rate in recent decades, strengthening its position in various parts of the world, intends to change the existing world order and to become a key player in the new world order. In terms of world order and the geopolitical race of superpowers, the Greater Middle East is by far the most important region in the world, where superpowers are always competing for hegemony. To get a clear idea of the race for influence in the region, in this analysis we tried to understand what influence and interests China and its main competitors, first of all the United States and Russia, have in the region. This article is part of a comprehensive analysis published by the “Luys” Foundation entitled "China's policy in the Middle East and South Caucasus on the example of relations with Turkey and Iran" which you can read at the following link: https://www.luys.am/index.php?m=publicationsOne&pid=246&lang=eng

  


China's policy in the Middle East and South Caucasus on the example of relations with Turkey and Iran

In the Middle East and the South Caucasus, China is gradually becoming one of the important geopolitical factors with which all countries in the region seek to build new quality relations. In order to correctly represent the race for superiority in the region, in this analysis we tried to understand what kind of influence and what interests have China and its main competitors in the region, primarily the United States and Russia. Turkey and Iran play a key role in the South Caucasus, therefore, within the framework of this analysis, we separately examined China's relations with each of these countries. Finally, we tried to understand the impact of China's regional policy on the South Caucasus countries, and also presented the vision and prospects for the development of the Armenian-Chinese relations. One of the important conclusions of this analysis is that deepening multilayer relations with the Iran-China axis can become a geopolitical alternative for Armenia, which, in the event of the collapse of the existing regional security system, will insure the country against existential threats, at the same time, under current conditions, will not create serious obstacles in the Armenian-Russian relations. Full material is availa...

  


US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Domestic and foreign policy consequences and Russia's new opportunity

In the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks against the United States, the fight against terrorism became a priority for the USА, leading to the engagement in the longest war in American history in Afghanistan. After G. Bush era, several U.S. administrations began to realize that there are other foreign policy priorities for the United States and there is a need to end "forever war” in Afghanistan. This led to the gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. The complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan took place under the 46th U.S. President Joe Biden. Although the U.S. troops have now been completely withdrawn from Afghanistan, the withdrawal has been a very hectic, rapid and disorganized process, for which Biden and his administration have been widely criticized. This paper will discuss the process of withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, its domestic political consequences for the Biden administration, as well as Russia's response and possible further steps in the current situation. Full material is available only in Armenian․

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-July 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


On the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first half of 2021

The objective of the present analysis is to assess the execution of the state budget of the RA in the given period. First, we describe the general state of the economy of the RA, namely the driving forces of economic activity, the developments in individual sectors of the economy, the behavior of the components of the demand – consumption and investment – and so on. Afterwards, we analyze the performance of government revenues and expenditures by comparing the actual and planned values of the respective indicators. We conclude the analysis by summarizing the main observations and results. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


The G7 plan to counter China's growing influence․ BRI vs B3W

During the 2021, G7 summit in the UK, Build Back Better World (“B3W”) global infrastructure initiative was launched, which has the ambition of becoming a serious challenger to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (“BRI”). The B3W project aims to fill the 40+ trillion infrastructure gap in the developing world by 2035. This article identifies the potential of the B3W project, its challenges and obstacles, the prospects of possible competition with the Chinese BRI initiative, as well as Armenia's role in the implementation of the B3W project. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Energy Transition Index in the RA (2021)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Global Gender Gap Index in the RA (2020)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Medium-Term Public Expenditure Framework for 2022-2024

The primary document that defines the medium-term (that is, for the upcoming three years) objectives of the government of the RA is the framework of public medium-term expenditures (MTEF), which is at the same time one of the main tools for fiscal policy communication. The effective use of the MTEF for that purpose is especially important in both crisis and post-crisis periods (such as the 2021 year), as it can give policy signals to economic agents, positively affect expectations and decrease the uncertainty in the economy. The present analysis is aimed at exploring the MTEF for 2022-2024, in particular the structure of the program, the main macroeconomic forecasts and directions of fiscal policy, which reflect the government's expectations regarding the further development of the economic situation as well as government actions to ensure a rapid economic recovery. Since the government's debt burden exceeded the legal limit in 2020, the analysis also considers the government's debt reduction program for 2022-2026. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-June 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Quo Vadis, Armenia? A Two-Fold Mission of Parliamentary Opposition

It was supposed that through the 2021 snap parliamentary elections Armenia would overcome the consequences of the crisis resulted from the Azerbaijani-Turkish military aggression in 2020. The results of the elections came as a surprise to many. The political force whose catastrophic mistakes resulted in heavy defeat in the war, thousands of casualties, wounded, captives, tens of thousands of displaced people, huge material and moral losses, received almost twice as many votes as the opposition and remained in power. Nevertheless, the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the election results shows that the impression of a great superiority in elections is deceptive: only 26.2% of voters expressed trust in the ruling political force, by means of the absolute use of administrative resources and mass violations. Moreover, even in that case, the registered votes for the ruling political force are only a few percent higher than the threshold required to form a government. The elections also marked the collapse of the multi-party system in Armenia. 25 political forces took part in elections, whereas from 9 to 11 political parties participated in the previous general elections. Still, the overwhelming majority of voters voted for indi...

  


The probability of economic collapse in Armenia - a myth or a real threat?

Are the concerns about the economic collapse in Armenia currently exaggerated or is it really a serious threat to the state, which can cause new catastrophes in the country? What are the possible prerequisites and causes of the collapse? Is governance the main source of threat? This study aims to provide answers to the above questions and assess the likelihood of economic collapse in Armenia. The risks and vulnerabilities accumulated in the economic system of the Republic of Armenia for the last three years were analyzed, as well as the anti-crisis policy of the Government of the RA to deal with the catastrophe that hit the country in 2020 was discussed. The Government's previous experience of successfully coping with the 2009 crisis, and some examples of countries that have gone through an economic collapse were brought. Reference was made to the possible steps that the current Government can take, learning from the previous experience of effective governance in the state, as well as from the devastating mistakes of the collapsed countries. At the end of the research, the possible scenario and mechanisms of economic collapse were modeled using modern econometric methods, as well as their possible effects on the economy were asses...

  


On the annual report for the year 2020 of the Audit Chamber of the RA

This reference summarizes the annual report for the year 2020 of the Audit Chamber of the Republic of Armenia on audits selected via risk-based methodology. In particular, the reference presents the general description of the above-mentioned audits (areas of auditing, types, nature of registered violations, etc.), as well as the most significant facts of the audits included in the annual report. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


On the conclusion of the Central Bank of Armenia on the execution of the RA state budget for 2020

This reference summarizes the conclusion of the Central Bank of Armenia on the execution of the RA state budget for 2020. The most remarkable assessments and problems of budget execution, registered by the Central Bank, are presented. In particular, the topics included in the reference relate to the partial and incomplete implementation of the anti-crisis measures of 2020, the underperformance of capital expenditures of the state budget, the sharp increase in the level of public debt, as well as problems related to the restoration of the potential of the Armenian economy. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


On the conclusion of the Audit Chamber on the implementation of the RA 2020 state budget

This reference summarizes the conclusion of the Audit Chamber on the implementation of the RA 2020 state budget. In particular, the reference includes the most notable violations of the RA state budget execution registered by the Audit Chamber in 2020 and the corresponding recommendations for their elimination. The topics are on the state procurement process, the program classification of state budget expenditures, the performance of non-financial indicators of the state budget, the internal audit process conducted in state bodies, and other issues registered in terms of state budget execution. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


On the execution report of the state budget of the RA of 2020

The objective of the present analysis is to assess the execution of the state budget of the RA in the given period. First, we describe the general state of the economy of the RA, namely the driving forces of economic activity, the developments in individual sectors of the economy, the behavior of the components of the demand – consumption and investment – and so on. Afterwards, we analyze the performance of government revenues and expenditures by comparing the actual and planned values of the respective indicators. We conclude the analysis by summarizing the main observations and results. Full material is only available in Armenian․

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-May 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Luys Foundation Annual Report - 2020

During the reporting period, the Luys Foundation team carried out large-scale analytical-research work, covering a wide variety of topics.Our focus is on the current developments in law, economy, politics, international relations. During the year, our team published about 70 researches, in which not only the existing problems and challenges were analyzed, but also appropriate solutions were sought and suggested.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-April 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


On the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first quarter of 2021

The objective of the present analysis is to assess the execution of the state budget of the RA in the given period. First, we describe the general state of the economy of the RA, namely the driving forces of economic activity, the developments in individual sectors of the economy, the behavior of the components of the demand – consumption and investment – and so on. Afterwards, we analyze the performance of government revenues and expenditures by comparing the actual and planned values of the respective indicators. We conclude the analysis by summarizing the main observations and results. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Centralized register of bank accounts. New challenges for banking secrecy

A draft law is being discussed in the National Assembly, according to which the Central Bank should create and maintain a centralized register of bank accounts, in which all commercial banks operating in the territory of the Republic of Armenia must necessarily participate. The information included in the centralized register of bank accounts relates to the right of banking secrecy, derived from the fundamental right to private life guaranteed by article 31 of the Constitution. In this context, the draft law is problematic from the point of view of compliance with the requirements of the Constitution in the case of restrictions on basic human rights. The draft law does not regulate the procedure of maintenance of the centralized register of bank accounts, the procedure and grounds for providing information from it and the range of bodies to which this information may be available. Taking into account that the draft law concerns the right of banking secrecy, all these issues should be addressed on the level of law. The study of international experience shows that, in contrast to the draft law, international documents offer regulations that allow to ensure balance of interests and guarantee confidence in the banking system, and d...

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-March 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Geopolitics and genocide

The use of the term "Genocide" in the US President Biden's Statement is a milestone in the process of recognizing the Armenian Genocide, despite the fact that some see it as a punitive step against Turkey pursuing its own policy in various areas without the consent of Washington. For Armenia and Armenians all over the world, there is also a third aspect of the problem, no less important than the two mentioned. In his Statement, Biden noted his determination to prevent such new disasters. The former US President did not show such determination during the large-scale Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression in 2020. Six months after the ceasefire was established, the threat of genocide against the Armenians of Artsakh has not disappeared, as evidenced by the rhetoric and actions of Turkey and Azerbaijan. The events in East Timor, South Sudan and Kosovo show that such a threat is significantly reduced only by the exercise of the right of people of conflict area to self-determination and the international recognition of a state based on it. The research shows that there are real preconditions for the recognition of the independence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. All that is needed is the determination and adherence of the international commu...

  


The authoritarian path of Erdogan’s Turkey and Armenia

Turkey's internal political processes and changes in the country’s state ideology greatly influence Ankara's regional policy. Erdogan's authoritarian Turkey, spiced with nationalist and Islamic ideas, has once again become one of the main threats to regional security. Therefore, when assessing the challenges emanating from Turkey, it is necessary not only to study its foreign and security policy, but also to correctly assess the internal political processes taking place there. Within the framework of this analysis, we tried to study the processes of the establishment and strengthening of authoritarian rule in Turkey by Erdogan, their ideological foundations and their influence on Ankara's foreign and regional policy. At the same time, we have recorded that some episodes of the working style of the current Turkish and Armenian authorities on the way to establish authoritarianism in the country have strange similarities. However, if the strengthening of Erdogan's authoritarian rule in Turkey is aimed at implementing the nationalist, expansionist programs of this country, then the establishment of an authoritarian system in Armenia without any pro-state ideology has already led the country to a disaster and may threaten the ex...

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-February 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Reference on the execution of the budget of the city of Yerevan (2020)

The budget execution report of Yerevan represents the main results – achievements and failures - of activities of the city council in the given period. It shows by how much the actual revenue collection deviates from the planned level. Additionally, the report demonstrates whether the expenditures were made in accordance with the prespecified plan. The budget execution report of Yerevan also characterizes the structure of actual revenues and expenditures. The goal of the present analysis is to study the foregoing report and to make necessary conclusions. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Draft amendments to the electoral code: Analysis of the major amendments

On 4 March 2020, the ruling “My Step” faction of the National Assembly came up with legislative initiative on amendments to the electoral legislation of the Republic of Armenia. The President of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia requested the Venice Commission to provide a legal opinion on the draft amendments.The analysis by the “Luys” Foundation addresses most problematic aspects of the legislative package, in particular, the proportional electoral system and stable majority clause. The analysis also refers to the other amendments envisaged by draft amendments to the electoral code.

  


The Index of Economic Freedom in the RA (2021)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Social Mobility Index (2020)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


EU Budget Support Programs in Armenia (2016-2020)

The European Union provides financial support to Armenia mainly within the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy. The support is provided through the annual action plans signed with the partner country every year. These documents define the areas of EU support, the scope and mechanisms for the provision of assistance as well as financial instruments, one of which is the budget support. The EU budget support is one of the main form of EU assistance to Armenia. It includes transfers of funds to the partner country’s state treasury and is used to support the partner country’s reform efforts in mutually agreed sectors, as well as to improve capacity for policy development. This study presents the EU budget support programs provided to Armenia, the principles of their implementation and progress of their implementation in 2016-2020. Full material is available only in Armenian

  


2020 war. preconditions, consequences and disaster recovery opportunities

In 2020, the Azeri-Turkish military aggression and the capitulation of the Armenian authorities had disastrous effects for the Republic of Armenia and for the Republic of Artsakh: thousands of victims and captives, tens of thousands wounded, huge material and moral losses, loss of all territories “adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh”, loss of parts of Askeran, Hadrut, Martuni, Martakert regions of Nagorno-Karabakh, the cities of Shushi and Hadrut, the defeat of the Armenian army, the reshaping of a number of border areas of the Republic of Armenia in favor of Azerbaijan, the sharp deterioration of relations with the allies, and the reputation of an unreliable and irresponsible partner. Given such huge losses, it is obviously difficult to single out the internal and external factors. Meanwhile, the key events of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict make the study of external relations a priority, in particular after the change of power in 2018, as prior to the war it was already clear that there are many challenges and fundamental mistakes endangering the conflict settlement process. But the failures were not limited to the settlement process, and even to the war. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the totally fail...

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The current account deficit in the balance of payments Of the economy of the RA: Causes and consequences

As of 2019, relative to GDP current account deficit of the economy of the RA is estimated at 7.2%. This is the worst performance in the South Caucasus. Given that the economy of the RA has been characterized by current account deficit constantly ever since its independence, it is clear that there are structural disproportions in its model of economic development. In this paper it is shown that in the RA the current account deficit is primarily caused by insufficient national savings. In addition, it is established that this phenomenon is precarious insofar as it leads to higher levels of consolidated external debt of the private and public sectors. By testing the hypothesis of twin deficits it is revealed that fiscal consolidation could contribute to the formation of external balance in the economy of the RA.

  


Corruption Perceptions Index in the RA (2020)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The future of Russian-American relations and the

This analysis is dedicated to the discussion of the foreign policy vision of the administration of the 46th US President Joe Biden regarding Russia. By examining the past and present positions of members of his administration on Russia and Russian-American relations, it becomes apparent that there are high-ranking officials in the Biden administration who have a pronounced anti-Russian stance. The latter do not see the prospects for large-scale Russian-American cooperation, especially under the current president of Russia. At the same time, potential cooperation in the areas of mutual interest, for example, in the field of reduction of nuclear arms, is not excluded. Russia will continue to be seen as the United States' main rival, and the United States will try to counter the spread of Russian influence in all directions.

  


Parliamentary oversight. Tools and mechanisms in the Republic of Armenia

The book on “Parliamentary oversight. Tools and mechanisms in the Republic of Armenia” explains the oversight role of the National Assembly of Armenia in the parliamentary system of government and presents the tools for parliamentary oversight provided by the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia and other legal acts. Special focus is made on the rights of parliamentary minority and issues of effective implementation of the oversight mechanisms by the latter. Additionally, analysis of international experience of certain oversight tools is provided. The addressees of the book are practitioners, as well as academia, students, researchers of the role of parliament in a parliamentary system, and those interested in development of parliamentary culture.

  


Corridors from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan and the risks for Armenia

The recent war in Artsakh, among other things, has also affected the communication problems in the region. While various experts are trying to assess the possible economic and political consequences of unblocking transport links in the region, the prospect of restoring transport links from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan is especially important for Armenia from a security point of view. Within the framework of this analysis, we tried to understand what the consequences of the November 10 statement will be for transport communications in the South Caucasus, what risks the construction of Azerbaijan-Armenia-Nakhichevan transport corridors may pose․ We also considered the formation of new corridors in the context of the conflict of interests of regional and global actors. As a result of the analysis, we have come to the conclusion that from the security point of view, the 9th point of the November 10 statement poses more new threats for Armenia than it creates opportunities. In the text of the statement, only the Armenian side is clearly committed to providing security guarantees for Azerbaijan-Nakhichevan transport links, while there are no security guarantees for other communications, which may create grounds for a new conflict, endange...

  


Specialization of judges in pre-trial criminal proceedings in Armenia. Challenges and risks

The legislative amendments submitted by the government of the Republic of Armenia are aimed at introducing the institute of judges specialized in pre-trial criminal proceedings. The analysis conducted by the “Luys” foundation addresses most problematic aspects of the legislative package, in particular, the validity, effectiveness and risks of a narrow specialization of judges, possible political motives, which raise concerns from the point of constitutionality as well as efficiency and expediency. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-December 2020

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Comparative analysis of public procurement processes of the Government of Armenia in 2017-2020

The ruling political force of Armenia has repeatedly announced about the need of a fair and transparent public procurement system. The introduction of such a system as well as of an effective system of procurement of goods and services in the right time and in proper volume, excluding the practices of conflict of interests, is also defined by the Government Program 2019, considering it as one of the main activities directed to increase the efficiency of public administration. To what extent public procurements meet these promises? Does the Government of the Republic of Armenia follow the tendering procedure or rely on the “single person” procurement procedure? This study aims to clarify these and a number of similar issues by comparative analysis of indicators for 2017-2020. The full material is available only in Armenian.

  


Analysis of the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia for the development of the Agriculture sector in Armenia

Development of the agriculture sector, an increase in the usage of unused agricultural land purposefully, increase of the effectiveness of agriculture and the introduction of modern technologies were announced as the main axes of the agrarian policy of the current government of the Republic of Armenia. How is the agricultural policy being implemented today, what support mechanisms are used in agriculture, what is the interest in them, are the agricultural extension services and how they operate. This study aims to clarify these and a number of similar issues. The document provides also detailed statistical analysis of 2016-2020 years, providing comparative analysis of relevant indicators. While comparing data of different periods of time, it should be noted that this study was ready for publication at the end of September, but was not published due to the military situation. The full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Reference on the budget of Yerevan of 2021

The budget of Yerevan sets the priorities of the economy of the city for the upcoming year. In the budget the planned level of revenues, as well as its structure is presented. In addition, the planned level of expenditures and its distribution by functional and economic classifications are determined. The forecasting of revenues and expenditures is followed by the planning of the budget deficit and the sources of financing it. Given the importance of this document and the programs embedded there, the present analysis aims to assess whether the budget of Yerevan and its structure are consistent with the problems confronting the city. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-November 2020

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Human Development Indices and Indicators in the RA (2020)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The effects of shocks in 2020 on the Government debt of RA

2020 began with a coronavirus crisis, and ends with the Artsakh war, and political instability. As a result, a very difficult economic situation has been created, which will inevitably have a negative impact on the stability of public finances, leading to a sharp increase in public debt. At the same time, given the existence of the several crises (security, economic, political, social), the emergence of government debt crisis will have catastrophic consequences for the Armenian economy. This analysis aims to study the effects of 2020 shocks on the Government debt of the Republic of Armenia. In this paper the dynamics of government debt in recent years and the reasons for sharp increase in government debt in 2020 were studied, as well as the expected trends in government debt in the coming years were discussed.

  


What to expect from the administration of the 46th US President Joe Biden

The analysis discusses the foreign policy vision of President-elect Joe Biden's administration. The study of Biden's position on issues such as US relations with Iran, Russia, Turkey, as well as the policy towards the South Caucasus, it becomes clear that Biden's foreign policy will be more active and aggressive. The issue of human rights protection in other countries can be used as a means of building relations with other countries and putting pressure on them. One of the main goals of the foreign policy will be to restore the US role as a world leader. As for the bilateral relations, Russia will continue to be seen as the main opponent, and Iran as one of the main rivals. The US policy towards Turkey will not change dramatically, but tougher rhetoric, up to the imposition of light sanctions will be possible. The main political priorities for the South Caucasus will be maintained. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


How did Ambassador Świtalski misread the foundations of Armenia's foreign policy?

This analysis was ready for publication before the outbreak of hostilities on September 27 this year, however, due to the war and the restrictions imposed by it, it was not published. Over the past decade, a number of key events have taken place in the Republic of Armenia, which have had a great impact on the country's foreign relations and their dynamics. The Head of the European Union Delegation to Armenia during the most active phase of this very interesting period (2015-2019), Ambassador Piotr Świtalski, recently summarized his memoirs in a booklet, called “The Armenian revolution: an unfinished cable”. In his memoirs, Ambassador Świtalski reflects on various episodes of his activity in Armenia, focusing on the dynamics of Armenia-EU relations, the current state of the Karabakh settlement, and especially the developments that took place in Armenia immediately before and after the April 2018 revolution. In this review, we have addressed in detail the foreign policy issues reflected in this very interesting booklet, helping the reader to more comprehensively evaluate the assessments of the European Union's Chief Representative in Armenia. As part of the review, we also tried to figure out - can the mission of A...

  


There is a diplomatic solution. Opportunities and prospects for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict after the 2020 war

The article discusses the realities that preceded the Azerbaijani-Turkish military aggression of September 27 and triggered the war. It analyzes the effects of the war, the legal force and political significance of the tripartite statement on the cessation of war, as well as the opportunities and prospects for the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It is revealed that the Azeri-Turkish aggression was made possible by using the settlement process for internal political purposes, by contrasting the settlement process with meaningless and extremely dangerous “ideas” to the principles developed over decades within the OSCE Minsk Group, by not heeding the voiced warnings, and by completely failing international relations. It is shown that though the tripartite statement on the cessation of hostilities was important in terms of establishing a ceasefire and deploying peacekeepers, it is illegal in terms of resolving territorial issues; it contradicts the basic principles of international law, the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia and it constitutes an act of capitulation for Armenia. However, after the handover of Karvachar and Lachin regions, it seems senseless to dispute it. Instead, efforts should be focuse...

  


Reference on the state budget of the RA of 2021

The present analysis is devoted to the investigation of the key aspects of the state budget of the RA. First, we consider the projections of macroeconomic variables forming the basis of the budget, then we analyse the planned values of parameters of the general and central budget of the RA. We pay particular attention to the comparison of the planned values of revenues and expenditures with the actual levels observed in previous years. In the end we make conclusions in order to assess whether the budget addresses the problems that exist in the RA. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


The UN General Assembly's 75th session, the main emphasis in the speeches of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan

This analysis was ready for publication before the outbreak of hostilities on September 27 this year, however, due to the war and the restrictions imposed by it, it was not published. The symbolic 75th session of the UN General Assembly has attracted the attention of the whole world, especially in view of the global crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic and the vacuum of international leadership in the fight against the epidemic. Most countries use the UN General Assembly podium to present their basic approaches to a variety of foreign policy issues: the speeches made there are not just texts based on the expediency of the situation, but pass through a serious preparatory stage, proceed from the strategic ideas of the given countries. In this regard, it is important to understand how the authorities of Armenia and Azerbaijan used the main tribune of the United Nations in order to convey their main message to the world and their own society. Within the framework of this article, we tried to identify the main accents of the speeches of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, considering them in comparison.

  


Coronavirus, geopolitical rearrangements and Armenia

This analysis was ready for publication before the outbreak of hostilities on September 27 this year, however, due to the war and the restrictions imposed by it, it was not published. Small states often underestimate the potential of global realities from the point of view of their state security, while the latter are more vulnerable to undesirable geopolitical developments, as disproportionate responses to them can expose such countries to existential danger. One of the most important achievements of Armenia since the restoration of independence has been that at various stages of the country's development, the authorities have been able to pay adequate attention to geopolitical processes and save the country from various threats and shocks associated with these processes. The crisis that has arisen in the world as a result of COVID-19, as in the case of all global crises, is accelerating the processes of geopolitical changes that have already begun. In the framework of this analysis, we have tried to assess the geopolitical consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, the peculiarities of the changing world order, as well as to understand the possible impact of these changes on Armenia and the region.

  


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