Գլխավոր - Լույս Հիմնադրամ
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ՍՈՎՈՐԵԼ. ԳՈՐԾԵԼ. ՀԱՄԱՍՏԵՂԾԵԼ

  


Recent developments around Iran and the risks for Armenia

While public attention in Armenia is focused on the domestic political agenda, not far from our borders there are taking place events, with serious military-political and economic threats to Armenia. In this context, recent developments around Iran deserve special attention. Within the framework of this analysis, the peculiarities of the situation around Iran were examined and potential threats to Armenia were identified, considering the crisis in a regional context and assessing the behavior of international players. The main purpose of the analysis is to draw the attention of the Armenian public, experts and political circles to the threats emanating from the current situation, emphasizing the importance of consolidating the society, bridging the internal gap and further harmonizing cooperation between Armenia and Artsakh in order to counter these threats.

  


Summarizing the 74th Session of the UN General Assembly․ important messages for the region and for Armenia

The 74th session of the UN General Assembly was held on September 17-30 in New York. It is no secret that most countries use the UN GA tribune to present their main approaches to various foreign policy issues. The speeches from this tribune do not just contain texts that pursue exclusively situational goals; they go through a serious preparatory stage and are based on the strategic perception of particular issues by the respective countries. Studying the speeches of representatives of different countries, as well as other events within the framework of the UN General Assembly allow us to understand their key messages for Armenia and the region.

  


  


  


  


Comparison of the sustainability of the public administration system of Armenia and Eastern Partnership associated states

In March 2019 SIGMA released an analysis, entitled “Baseline Measurement Report: Principles of Public Administration", which analyzed the six key areas of public administration in Armenia with a specific methodology, provided estimates on these areas. The assessments reflected in the report are particularly important in the context of the recent discussions in Armenia, according to which the present authorities have inherited a "failed state system"․ Earlier, SIGMA also prepared reports with similar content on other EU Eastern Partnership countries, in particular on Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. A comparative analysis of reports on Armenia and these countries suggests that in many areas Armenia is at the same level or has advantages over these countries.

  


  


  


Underperformance of capital expenditures of the RA state budget and its possible consequences

From the most of the analysis on this topic, it can be concluded that the non-execution of public capital expenditure leads to economic growth penalty. Therefore, the proper implementation of capital spending should be a positive outcome for the government of each country, and their underperformance is alarming. Given that capital expenditure impacts economic growth in different ways, in this analysis, we applied a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), which describes the whole economy quite well and allows to observe the impact of capital expenditure underperformance on all sectors of the economy. At the core of the analysis was the assumption that capital expenditure was reduced only one year, and in subsequent years, they were restored to a sustainable level. The results of the model used show that the highly conservative government behavior on capital spending is dangerous and in the long- run, it will fine the potential for economic growth. The impact of underperformance of capital expenditure on other macro variables is also assessed, such as private real investments, real wages, employment, real effective exchange rates, ...

  


The perspectives of energy cooperation between Armenia and Iran

The potential of the Armenian-Iranian energy cooperation is often overestimated by the media-expert circles of Armenia. This contributes to the formation of unnecessary and unrealistic public expectations, which can lead to disappointment and ultimately negatively affect the further development of bilateral relations. There has been a great deal of work done to deepen bilateral energy cooperation over the last decades, as a result, although slowly, some positive developments have occurred. The fact that the two neighboring countries have the potential for cooperation is beyond doubt, but objective and subjective obstacles to the full realization of this potential should also be taken into account. Deepening the Armenian-Iranian energy cooperation is a mutually beneficial process, which every Armenian government should properly promote and ensure continuity of implementation of the programs on the agenda. This is an area where political will alone is not enough and a great deal of diplomatic and negotiation work is required for success.

  


The Importance of Evangelists for Trump, Azerbaijan and Armenian-in Armenian

        Much can be said about the American Heartland and the influence that it has held on the soul of the United States for an enduring period of time. It can be said that the conservative, Christian sector of the US has been a very important counterweight to the more liberal tendencies on the coasts of the country. It has played heavily into the “blue state, red state” divide and expectedly given the US a more conservative character than some of the other Western nations of the modern day. Evangelical Christian community constitutes an important and weighty part of this conservative Christian sector.  Evangelical Christianity is one of the Protestant confessions that gained its name from their pursuit of the implementation of the Scripture. Evangelical community makes up a significant portion of the US population. According to the 2014 survey of Pew research center the Evangelical percentage of the population is 25.4% (about 81 million people). The states with most evangelical population are Texas (6.5 million), California (3.5 million), Florida (3million) etc. Although the influence of the white evangelicals has been less visible, it has a significant impact on political decisions. More imp...

  


The “One Belt - One Road” program and the uncertain role of Armenia in it

China’s “One Belt, One Road” Initiative claims to become the so-called “New Marshall’s Plan” for the entire Eurasian region. Armenia, which has certain objective difficulties in regional and international integration, should try to maximize the use of opportunities of the Chinese initiative. In this regard, it is important to clarify the essence of the “One Belt - One Road” project, present the level of involvement of different countries in the region, understand the possible consequences of the project for Armenia and realistic expectations from it.

  


Concerning structure of economic growth in Armenia Economic growth is one of the instruments for measuring the country's economic development. But only the existence of economic growth is not enough to talk about the country's economic development. It is more important that what leads to the economic growth and how economic growth is formulated. In cases when economic growth is mainly driven by one or two factors or when it is driven by the growth of the non-exportable economy, we cannot speak about long-term and sustainable economic growth. From this point of view the economic growth of the Republic of Armenia is also significant, as especially in the recent periods the economic growth is mainly conditioned by lotteries and bookmaking.

  


The expected growth of export of the Azerbaijani gas as an instrument of foreign policy influence: possible consequences for Armenia and the region.

As the quantity of petrol extraction drops and the international prices fall, exploring opportunities for export of gas are becoming more and more salient for Azerbaijan. Baku will try to use this as a means to serve its interests in international relations and strengthen its positions in the region. To estimate the threat of such developments for Armenia, this analysis attempts to study the perspectives and obstacles of the growth in size of the export of the Azerbaijani gas while taking into account the tendencies, which can be seen in the European, regional and worldwide gas markets. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Questions formed as a result of the professional discussion held on the theme of vetting and transitional justice in Armenia

On the 11th of June, 2019, with the support of «LUYS» foundation a professional discussion was held on the topic of vetting and transitional justice in Armenia. Renowned lawyers and political analysts took part in the discussion. As a result many questions were identified, which need answers prior to the development of respective conceptual approaches and legislative packages. The package of questions was sent to the permanent commission of state-legal matters of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia, Supreme Judicial Council of the Republic of Armenia, factions of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia and the Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Armenia.Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


Concerning the draft legislation on “Making changes and amendments to the law on “commission for prevention of corruption”

On June 25, 2019 the National Assembly of Armenia adopted at the first reading the draft legislation providing for changes and amendments to the law on “commission for prevention of corruption”, which was presented by the NA Speaker Ararat Mirzoyan. The legislation includes a new order of formation of the commission for prevention of corruption, new requirements and functions for the commission members. This article analyses possible legal risks of the changes and their comparability to the internationally recognized principles. Full material is only available in Armenian.

  


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